Bitcoin (BTC) rose 3.8% between October 23rd and October 25th, facing resistance at $68,700, but will there be enough bullish momentum to push the price into the $70,000 range? Recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased investors’ risk appetite, but Bitcoin’s ability to surpass the $70,000 threshold will likely depend on four key drivers.
Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView
Limiting factors include global economic uncertainty, high mining sales pressure and concerns about low hashrate profitability, the potential regulatory impact of the US election results, and large Bitcoin holdings on exchanges.
Amid global economic uncertainty, investors remain cautious. Bitcoin has established itself as a top 10 global asset by market capitalization, alongside giants like TSMC, Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla, and Walmart, but there are reasons why investors aren’t going “all in.” Traditional assets offer steady returns and the fixed income yield is 4.7%, so the incentive to switch to Bitcoin is still limited. As a result, investors may choose to wait for further signals from the broader market before committing to a $70,000 price target.
Adding to the tentative sentiment is the upcoming US presidential election. The leading candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, has said she favors highly regulated markets focused on protecting individual investors. This stance contrasts with former President Donald Trump’s more constructive views on the integration of digital assets within traditional finance, which could impact the trajectory of Bitcoin adoption.
Selling pressure and on-chain activity from Bitcoin miners
Concerns also stem from the Bitcoin mining sector, where profitability is struggling due to headwinds. The hash rate index, which measures mining revenue potential, fell to a near-record low of $49 per petahash per second (PH/s) daily, down about 50% since the April halving. This decline highlights the financial pressure on miners, who are essential to ensuring network security, and their movements can impact Bitcoin’s price dynamics as they adjust their operating strategies.
Bitcoin Mining Hash Rate Index, USD per day per PH/s. Source: Hash Rate Index
Given that miners collectively hold over 1.8 million BTC (equivalent to approximately $122.4 billion), many traders are concerned that these companies could be forced to sell aggressively.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Ethan Vera, COO of Luxor Technology, said:
“You’re going to continue to see negative profits and they’re using shareholder dilution to hide how poor the industry is and how poorly run operations it is.”
On-chain data has provided little reassurance, as Bitcoin’s 7-day average active address has changed little over the past six months. This trend reflects the same lackluster adoption that has led to stagnant Google searches for Bitcoin, suggesting limited growth in public interest.
relevant: The Next Stage of the Bull Market Isn’t About ETH or Memecoins It’s ‘All About Bitcoin’ — Analyst
Bitcoin network active addresses, 7-day average. Source: Coin Indicators
Spot Bitcoin ETF Accumulation and Exchange Deposits
Some analysts predict a potential “supply shock” due to high accumulation through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, this outlook does not fully explain the significant BTC deposits on exchanges, which still remain at high levels. Current estimates range between 1.9 and 3 million BTC, depending on the custodial activity of companies like Coinbase.
Even if spot ETFs continue to accumulate an ambitious $2 billion per month, there will still be at least $129.2 billion in foreign exchange reserves. Predicting the exact price that will trigger mass sales remains difficult. However, additional BTC may enter exchanges and some ETF holders may choose to offload their positions as they see significant gains.
Traders will need a combination of factors, including declining interest rates, improving mining profitability, and strong ETF accumulation, before they feel confident enough to add to Bitcoin positions and push the price towards the $70,000 threshold.
This article is written for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.