Bitcoin (BTC) is breaking records after a weekend BTC price surge hit nearly $82,000 to start the week.
- Bitcoin traders believe the BTC price rally will continue despite some concerns that the retracement could reach scary levels.
- Macroeconomic data releases continue to come thick and fast as US presidential election frenzy gives way to ongoing inflation talk.
- After months of frustration, Bitcoin traders have finally seen BTC/USD catch up with gold.
- BTC price gains may be impressive, but in percentage terms there is still a long way to go before November 2024 matches historical average gains.
- Mainstream interest is growing, but like Bitcoin’s last halving, the all-time high has yet to open the floodgates for mass retail inflows.
Bitcoin traders are divided on the future BTC price trend.
Bitcoin, which has reached nearly $82,000, is starting the week with a bang as the BTC price discovery is confirmed.
Bitstamp hit an all-time high of $81,888 after the weekly close, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
This naturally became the highest price in Bitcoin history, reaching over $80,000 after a lively weekend of gains.
Although some are concerned that there could be a big retracement, the perception of overall strength remains a driving force among traders.
“Passive sellers are still active around $81.5K. Alts have lacked bidding momentum so far.” Popular trader Skew wrote in one of his latest posts about X.
Skew suggested that the start of the TradFi trading week in Europe and the US would further strengthen the bullish case, potentially proving that the “after-hours” weekend could propel the stock to new highs.
“Bids have risen again, but still lack the same volume and momentum as previous gains,” he observed about exchange order book liquidity.
“Probably changed to EU/US time.”
The longer-term outlook favors even more intense upside, with market participants marking a seven-month consolidation phase for BTC/USD since the all-time high in March.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt claimed over the weekend that “Bitcoin has given everyone the opportunity to buy the break from March to October 2024.”
“Once BTC decides to ‘mark up’, it never looks back.”
Brandt set a BTC price target of $125,000 by the end of the year, having previously predicted $130,000 in the third quarter of 2025 alone.
Meanwhile, the weekly close met the conditions for Bitcoin to enter the “parabolic phase” of the current bull market.
CPI week replaces US election fever.
A flurry of macroeconomic data from the U.S. will keep risk asset traders on edge going forward as the Federal Reserve adds nuance to its monetary policy expectations.
The main event is the October print of the main inflation indicators, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI).
The Federal Reserve is currently grappling with mixed signals regarding its fight against inflation in the United States, including cutting interest rates by 0.25% last week amid weak employment.
More jobless claims data is expected to be released on November 14, along with the PPI and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s economic outlook speech.
“Markets will also continue to digest earnings season, election results and the Federal Reserve meeting,” trade resource Kobeissi Letter predicted ahead of “a very busy week.”
A further 0.25% cut is expected at the Fed’s next meeting on December 18, according to the latest data from the CME Group FedWatch tool.
“Overall, current investor sentiment and risk appetite are historically strong,” Kobeissi said in a Nov. 9 X thread.
“As we move into 2025, it becomes clear that the economy is slowing and fiscal policy is uncertain.”
Despite the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high of 6,000 points last week, such strong performance is “not sustainable,” he added. This represents a year-to-date gain of nearly 50%.
Bitcoin revives the gold race
Those who have been involved in the cryptocurrency market for a long time now see Bitcoin trying to play catch-up with gold rather than stocks.
XAU/USD started rising before Bitcoin, while BTC/USD has been falling below previous all-time highs since March.
Charles Edwards, founder of quant Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, who uploaded a comparison chart to X on November 11, sees bulls now quickly redressing the balance.
“Here it is. I’ve shared this chart a few times. “Bitcoin is months behind gold,” he told his followers.
“If a breakout occurs, expect a quick price correction.”
Expectations are rising due to Bitcoin institutional investment milestone following BTC price breakout. Last week, inflows into asset management giant BlackRock’s physical Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) exceeded inflows into its gold ETF.
As commentators have pointed out, gold ETFs have been on the market for about 20 years longer.
Last week, trading firm QCP Capital suggested that the combination of Bitcoin ETF inflows and spot price performance could eventually lead to a snowball effect.
“BTC’s continued strength could create a feedback loop where increased ETF inflows push BTC prices higher, which in turn attracts more retail capital and systematic fund purchases as volatility decreases,” he told subscribers of his Telegram channel.
Is it November like any other?
Bitcoin’s monthly performance as of November 2024 is about 16%, which is nothing special.
Despite repeatedly hitting all-time highs throughout the month, BTC/USD still has a long way to go to make this November stand out so far.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass puts the situation in context. For example, Bitcoin’s last halving in November 2020 saw a 43% gain.
2017 was also the year that Bitcoin reached an all-time high in November, with a November gain of 53%, and in 2013 it outperformed the rest of the year with a massive 450% return. Bitcoin’s worst November since then was 2018, when it fell nearly 37%.
This wide range of fluctuations puts the “average” return for November at around 43%, leaving already bullish traders predicting more upside before the month closes.
Popular trader Mikybull Crypto, who used Fibonacci retracement levels, said on November 11: “The next area of interest for BTC is $93,000 before a pullback and consolidation and $121,000 to complete the wave (5).”
Six-figure BTC price predictions are already becoming increasingly common, with deadlines for historical events varying from source to source. As Cointelegraph reported, the first quarter of 2025 is a popular target.
Cryptocurrency educator Karan Singh Arora described $100,000 by the end of the year as “inevitable.”
“$100,000 $BTC is less than $20,000 away,” said fellow trader Johnny.
“It’s crazy how far we’ve come.”
Mainstream sentiment reflects BTC price breakout in 2020.
Beyond institutions, there is still no appetite when it comes to mainstream consumer interest in Bitcoin.
relevant: A Bitcoin rally to $81,000 could trigger a rebound in ETH, SOL, SUI, and AAVE.
The latest data from Google Trends highlights the fact that, just like in 2020, consumers are starting to pay attention to BTC price performance again.
Popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 summarized X as “recent surge, but still early days.”
“For comparison, December 2020 (where we found prices above $20,000) closed at 35, so very similar.”
Cointelegraph previously reported on several indicators being used to determine the peak of a Bitcoin bull market based on mainstream participation. So far, no one has reached the realm of “classic” explosive highs.
For example, the popularity of Coinbase’s trading app, the largest exchange in the US, is far from its #1 spot on the Apple AppStore.
“Now Robinhood is starting to rise as well, but let’s see if this rise continues. *This app ranked #1 in December 2017, April 2021, and November 2021,” said Bitcoindata21.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.