ETF Hopeful Bold Predictions
Multinational banking giant Standard Chartered has made a surprising prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) could soar to nearly $200,000 by the end of 2025, following the approval and success of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. This forecast hinges on the belief that spot Bitcoin ETFs could attract $50 billion to $100 billion in inflows in 2024.
Basics of Forecasting
Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets Geoff Kendrick and precious metals analyst Suki Cooper based this forecast on the assumption that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs could hold between 437,000 and 1.32 million bitcoins by the end of 2024. reportshared by
Drawing parallels with gold ETFs
Kendrick and Cooper draw parallels with the history of gold exchange-traded products (ETPs), which experienced similar growth over seven to eight years after their launch in November 2004. However, they expect Bitcoin’s growth to accelerate even further, potentially materializing over a year or more. Considering the rapid development of the BTC ETF market, it has been extended to 2 years.
Bitcoin’s “watershed moment”
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is seen as a key moment in normalizing Bitcoin participation. This sentiment is consistent with Standard Chartered’s previous prediction that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Beyond ETFs: Enhanced Bitcoin Network Fundamentals
Blockchain strategist Jamie Coutts highlights Bitcoin’s strengthened network fundamentals as another key factor. Coutts points out that Bitcoin’s network base is at an all-time high, including new use cases like inscriptions. This suggests that Bitcoin is currently undervalued, despite being 40% below its peak.
Contrasting views from Bloomberg Intelligence
In contrast to Standard Chartered’s optimistic outlook, Mike McGlone, chief macroeconomic strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, expressed skepticism. Speaking on the Macro Monday talk show, McGlone warned that Bitcoin, a risky asset, may not be able to sustain its upward trend following the ETF’s approval. He advised caution, pointing to the historical pattern of risky assets declining following such hype-driven rallies.
Balance between optimism and caution
Standard Chartered’s forecast presents a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, but it is important for investors and market observers to balance this optimism carefully. The potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF could indeed be a game-changer for the cryptocurrency, but market reaction and broader economic factors will ultimately dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory going forward.