Bitcoin was flat on Thursday morning ahead of new US data on two important economic indicators: initial jobless claims and home sales.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $51,823.78. This is up a slight 0.3% since this time yesterday and virtually unchanged compared to last week, according to CoinGecko data.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum showed signs of traders taking profits and waiting to see what the markets will do after the US reported initial jobless claims and existing home sales.
Investors have been focusing on economic data to predict when the Federal Reserve will finally cut interest rates in 2024. Hints from FOMC members so far have been less than optimistic.
“I think there’s plenty of time to have more confidence about where the economy is headed,” Federal Reserve President Michelle Bauman said at a D.C. Bank event yesterday. “I think at some point it will be time to start the process of lowering rates. But given the uncertainty in the data, I’m not sure. Well, certainly not now.”
Investors heard her loud and clear.
With 27 days left until the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, only about 5% of investors believe the committee is likely to cut interest rates in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Current data shows that 54% of traders think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June.
Digital assets and stocks are generally considered “risky” assets. Investors tend to leave a larger space for risky assets in their portfolios when federal interest rates are low. However, the US federal government interest rate soared from 0.25 to 0.50% in March 2022. It reached 5.25-5.50% in July 2023, but has not yet been reduced.
Meanwhile, Yuya Hasegawa, a cryptocurrency analyst at Japan’s Bitbank, has been watching the daily flows of US Bitcoin ETFs for signs of how traders are doing. He noted that flows have fallen sharply since last week, from about $300 million per day to $135 million.
“Nevertheless, this is still roughly three times the amount supplied by the Bitcoin network in a single day, which does not mean that selling pressure on the ETF is greater than demand,” he wrote. “A recovery in the US stock market could push Bitcoin price higher within its current range, but $53,000 will be a difficult resistance to break.”
For that, there is good news. Nvidia’s particularly strong fourth-quarter earnings report yesterday appears to have boosted the stock. Most major U.S. stock markets ended the day lower.