Bitcoin ended the first quarter of 2024 with a massive gain of 68.50%. Much of the rally was triggered by the launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund that saw strong inflows. Bitcoin’s rise boosted sentiment, leading to sharp gains in several altcoins. The question nagging investors is whether the rally will continue or whether a correction is needed.
The next major event to watch is Bitcoin’s halving, which is expected to occur in about 18 days. Historical data shows that Bitcoin reached all-time highs 12 to 18 months after the halvings in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020. However, in 2024, Bitcoin set a new record before the halving. This has made some analysts cautious, predicting that Bitcoin will see a short-term sell-off following the event.
Although the short term is uncertain, analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long term. Mark Yusko, CEO and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management, predicted that Bitcoin will more than double this year, reaching $150,000. He believes investors should allocate 1-3% of their portfolio to Bitcoin. Yusko is very bullish on the long term and expects Bitcoin to “easily go up 10x from here over the next decade.”
Bitcoin ETFs performed well in the first quarter of 2024, but institutional inflows were slow. Matt Hougan, CIO of cryptocurrency index fund manager Bitwise, wrote in a note that fund managers managing about $100 trillion in assets under management are allocating about 1% to Bitcoin ETFs over the next few years as $1 trillion flows in. He said things could change over the years. Investment expert.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said in an interview with Fox Business that he was “pleasantly surprised” to see how well the spot Bitcoin ETF performed. He added, “I am very optimistic about the long-term viability of Bitcoin.”
What are the important support levels to watch out for in Bitcoin and major altcoins? Let’s study the chart to find out.
BTC/USD market analysis
In our previous analysis, we warned traders that a fall below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) could send Bitcoin down to $59,224 and the BTC/USD pair to $60,771 on March 20.
The recovery has since reached near $72,000, indicating that bears are aggressively selling on the rally. The 20-day EMA has flattened and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to the mid-point, signaling that the uptrend may be losing steam.
If the price stays below the 20-day EMA, the pair could reach the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This is key support to watch out for in the near term. Because a break or close below that could accelerate sales.
The $59,224 level could act as minor support, but a breakout is likely. The pair could then plummet to the $52,100 breakout level.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level or 50-day SMA, bulls will again try to overcome the indirect resistance between $72,000 and $73,835. If successful, the two could begin an upward move to $80,000.
ETH/USD market analysis
Our assumption that Ethereum would fall to the 50-day SMA where buyers would participate worked out perfectly. We also said that the relief rally would face a sell-off at the EMA on the 20th, and that happened.
The inability to hold the price above the 20-day EMA led to selling, which pushed the price below the 50-day SMA. The 20-day EMA has leveled off and the RSI has fallen below its midpoint, indicating that momentum is turning bearish.
If sellers keep the price below the 50-day SMA, the ETH/USD pair could fall to $3,057, an important support to watch out for. A breakdown of this level could further intensify the selling and send the price plummeting to $2,700.
Instead, if the price bounces from $3,057, it would indicate solid demand at lower levels. The pair may then fluctuate between $3,057 and $3,682 over the next few days. Bulls would need to keep the price above $3,682 to signal a recovery.
BNB/USD market analysis
We mentioned in our previous analysis that Binance Coin is likely to witness a strong battle between bulls and bears at the 20-day EMA, and that is exactly what happened. The recovery began towards $645, but the decline stopped at $620 on March 29th.
The bears are trying to push the price below the 20-day EMA. That could push the BNB/USD pair down to the important support level at $496.
If the price rebounds from this level, the pair could remain in a range between $496 and $645.
Conversely, if the price falls below $498, the selling pressure may intensify and plummet to the $460 level. Buyers are expected to aggressively defend the level.
Bulls will need to clear the overhead area between $620 and $645 to indicate a resumption of the uptrend.
XRP/USD market analysis
XRP has been fluctuating between $0.56 and $0.67 for several days. A flat 20-day EMA and RSI just below the midpoint suggest that the range boundary movement could persist for some more time.
An important support line to watch during a downtrend is the uptrend line. A breakdown of this support could accelerate selling and the XRP/USD pair could fall to $0.52, which could lead to buyer intervention.
On the upside, the $0.67 level remains a key crossover barrier. If that happens, the pair is likely to gain momentum and surge towards the fearsome overhead resistance at $0.75.
Trading within ranges can be volatile and random. Therefore, traders can wait for a breakout to occur before taking large positions.
ADA/USD market analysis
Cardano behaved as predicted in previous analysis. Breaking below its 50-day SMA, the ADA/USD pair fell to $0.57, which is close to the expected level of $0.56.
As we expected, the recovery hit a wall at the 20-day EMA. This means that sentiment has turned negative and traders are selling on the rally.
A falling 20-day EMA and RSI in negative territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
If the price falls below the $0.56 level, the pair will complete a head-shoulders pattern, opening the door for a further decline towards the key support at $0.45.
Conversely, if the price bounces from $0.56, it indicates aggressive buying on the decline. That could result in the pair staying between $0.56 and $0.70 for some time.
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