Bitcoin was seeing gains all over the place leading up to the halving, indicating indecision between bulls and bears on the next direction move. Although buyers failed to resume the upward trend, it is a positive sign that they did not allow Bitcoin to fall below the crucial $60,000 level.
While Bitcoin remains range-bound, several altcoins have faced the brunt of selling pressure. Several altcoins within the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have fallen more than 20% over the past seven days. This pushed Bitcoin’s market capitalization dominance to over 55%, its highest level in three years, according to coinmarketcap data.
The next event being closely watched is the Bitcoin halving. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote in his blog post that Bitcoin is likely to surge in the medium term after the halving, but could face pressure in the short term. He added that tightening dollar liquidity could lead to “an explosive sell-off of cryptocurrency assets.” He therefore proposed a suspension of trading until May 1.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, calls for caution for a longer period after the halving. In a recent analyst note, he said Bitcoin miners could halve about $5 billion worth of Bitcoin over four to six months. Bitcoin could then be stuck in a range for months.
However, analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin in the long term. SkyBridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci is being interviewed. CNBC, said Bitcoin could eventually trade at half the value of gold. That means a “6-8-10x move” from current levels is possible. However, Scaramucci added that there will be a lot of volatility during the move and that the move won’t happen overnight.
Another optimistic voice was venture capitalist Tim Draper. He told Cointelegraph that strong inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could push Bitcoin to $250,000 by the end of 2024.
What are the important support and resistance levels to watch out for in Bitcoin and major altcoins? Let’s study the chart to find out.
BTC/USD market analysis
In our previous analysis, we warned traders that a drop below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) could accelerate selling and send Bitcoin down to near $59,224, and that is exactly what happened. The BTC/USD pair fell to $60,822 on April 13.
The pair bounced off support, but the relief rally hit a wall at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This means sentiment is still negative and traders are selling through the rally.
Bears will again try to push the price below the $60,771-$59,224 support zone. If successful, the pair could begin a downtrend towards $52,100. The bearish 20-day EMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in negative territory indicate that the bears are in favor.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price bounces from $59,224, it would be a sign that the bulls are fiercely defending the support zone. This could keep it in a range between $60,771 and $73,835 for some time.
If buyers get and hold the price above $73,835, the next uptrend will likely begin, but it is unlikely to happen in the near term.
ETH/USD market analysis
We said in our previous analysis that Ethereum could plummet to $2,700, with the price reaching a low of $2,850 on April 13. The bulls are trying to start a recovery but the bears continue to sell at higher levels as seen by the long wicks. April 15 Candlestick.
A falling 20-day EMA and RSI below 40 suggest that the bears have a slight advantage. The seller will again try to lower the price below $2,850. If that happens, the selling could recover and the ETH/USD pair could fall to $2,700. This level is likely to act as strong support.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level of $2,850, it would be a sign that the bulls are trying to stop the decline. The first sign of strength would be a breakout and close above the 20-day EMA. This would open the door for a bounce to $3,730, where the bears are expected to play strong defense again.
If the price rises above the indirect resistance of $3,730, the trend will change in favor of buyers.
BNB/USD market analysis
We mentioned in our previous analysis that Binance Coin was likely to remain in the range between $496 and $645, and that was indeed the case.
The bulls tried to push the price above the overhead resistance on April 12, but the bears stayed there. This tempted short-term traders to take profits, causing the price to surge to $508 on April 13.
Bulls bought the bears but failed to overcome the overhead hurdle at the April 15-20 EMA. This indicates that the rally is being sold off.
If the price falls below the 50-day SMA, the BNB/USD pair could plunge towards the important support level at $495. A strong bounce from the support could keep the pair within the range for some time.
On the other hand, a decline below $495 would suggest that the bulls are rushing for the exit. This could lead to a further decline to $460.
XRP/USD market analysis
XRP broke below the rising trend line on April 12th, resulting in a massive sell-off. This took the price below the important support level of $0.48 on April 13, but there was solid buying at that lower level.
The bulls pushed the price back above $0.48 on April 14th, but the weak bounce shows that every little relief rally is being sold off. The price fell from $0.52 on April 15 and reached near the $0.48 support on April 16.
If this support breaks, the selling could accelerate and the pair could fall to $0.42. Bulls are expected to actively defend this level, as a break below this level could send the price down to $0.35.
If buyers hold the price above the 20-day EMA, the bearish outlook will be nullified in the near term. This suggests range restrictions could be extended for a few more days.
ADA/USD market analysis
We said in our previous analysis that a break below $0.56 would complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, opening the door for further declines to key support at $0.45, and that is exactly what happened.
The ADA/USD pair fell below $0.56 on April 12 and extended the decline to $0.40 on April 13. Buyers tried to initiate a relief rally but hit a solid barrier at the psychological level of $0.50. This means that the bears are selling whenever there is a slight uptick.
If the price continues lower and falls below $0.40, it is a sign of the beginning of a downtrend. The pair could then plummet to $0.35.
Conversely, if the price rises and goes above $0.50, we suggest buying at a lower level. The pair may then rise to $0.56, which is likely to again witness a tough fight between bulls and bears.
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