Bitcoin (BTC) is heading into its April monthly close amid uncertainty, with BTC price falling to a 10-day low.
The largest cryptocurrency continues to tread water below significant resistance levels after a week of sustained selling during Wall Street trading hours.
Macro and geopolitical instability have been added to the powerful mix that Bitcoin bulls will have to deal with this month. Can we change the situation?
There are only a few days left to avoid the April candle close making 2024 Bitcoin’s worst month to date.
The situation at hand remains problematic. There is significant seller interest between the spot price and all-time highs, with price discovery only around $12,000, but those levels seem decidedly out of reach.
So market observers are looking in the opposite direction. In other words, we are looking at a key area of support if downward pressure continues to build.
Optimists argue that BTC/USD will simply widen its range, and over time, a bull market like the one enjoyed in the first quarter will continue.
Hong Kong’s return this week may be aided by déjà vu. Less than four months after the United States, Hong Kong is set to launch its own spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Cointelegraph explores these key topics and more in our weekly roundup of everything related to BTC price.
Bitcoin Risks Worst Month Since November 2022
The weekly close provided some respite for battered Bitcoin traders as BTC/USD continued to fall into the Asian session.
It hit a low of $61,943 on Bitstamp, putting the pair at its lowest level since April 19, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
The week before’s relief towards $65,000 was met with repeated selling pressure around the Wall Street open that commentators including popular trader Skew attributed to US automated trading algorithms.
“I see the potential for a longer craps between $67K and $58K until a breakout with decent flow support,” he continued. fresh analysis April 29th on X (formerly Twitter).
The Bears have so far failed to keep the market below $60,000 for long. But even at current levels of about $62,000, a loss of more than 12% is expected in April.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass confirms that this will be Bitcoin’s worst performing month since November 2022, the peak of the recent bear market.
Skew went on to say that the monthly close will itself form a new major BTC price focus.
“One-month closes happen in roughly two days, so monthly closes and weekly opens are going to be very significant,” he said. wroteIt describes the one-month period as “not bad at all” and reiterates the importance of the $58,000 support.
Dramatic Yen Volatility Enters FOMC Week.
Important macroeconomic events continue to unfold this week with the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next interest rate decision.
Although the market is not expecting much change at the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, recent macro data is raising concerns about the strength of risk assets. There are concerns that a rate cut could come much later than expected at the start of the year, as estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool show.
“We have a huge week ahead of us.” Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarizes it in its weekly report. macro outlook thread At X.
“After a month filled with hot inflation data, we will finally get an updated view from the Fed.”
It’s not just the FOMC. This week’s macro headlines were Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on May 1, followed by jobless claims and unemployment rate data on May 2 and May 3.
However, for Bitcoin and risk assets, everything may not be so bad unless views change towards a seriously worsening economic situation.
“The worst-case scenario is a series of bad orders in risk assets, potentially collapsing economic bets,” Skew explained of the outlook.
“You’re probably looking in the $50,000 to $46,000 range. Don’t see that happening until the HTF gets closer to less than $58,000 and there is an explanation for the breakdown.”
Some signs of stress are evident this week. The United States saw new local bank failures, while in Japan the yen rebounded above 160 to its lowest level against the dollar since 1990.
Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF to be launched
Next week in Asia will be a key moment for institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
Hong Kong, like the United States, is set to open its doors to Bitcoin ETF discovery in January, and expectations of imitation interest and price impact are already building.
Willy Woo, founder of on-chain statistics platform Woobull, cited a 2022 report from cryptocurrency exchange Huobi to highlight that there could be serious demand for spot ETF products.
“In terms of number of users, the Asian market is larger than the US and European markets combined,” part of
In a preliminary report on the upcoming launch, blockchain research and advisory group House of Chimera put the potential inflow at $25 billion, citing estimates from cryptocurrency financial services platform Matrixport.
“Significant capital potential could lead to increased liquidity and could also stabilize the price of Bitcoin,” he wrote in X.
“This could also set a precedent for other Asian markets, potentially influencing further regulatory adjustments in favor of cryptocurrencies.”
House of Chimera noted that regulatory hurdles could limit investor participation in mainland China, which would mark a major turning point for China’s repeated attempts to quash cryptocurrency activity.
“The introduction of a Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong is a groundbreaking development, but its success and impact on the broader market will largely depend on the regulatory environment, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic factors affecting cryptocurrency valuations.” He concluded:
Major BTC price support ready for retest
As Bitcoin approaches significant support levels ($60,000 and $58,000), one trend line in particular is starting to stand out like a line in the sand.
As Cointelegraph reported, the total cost basis for short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH) is now attracting the attention of analysts.
This group of investors corresponds to companies that hold portions of BTC for up to 155 days, essentially making up the speculative end of the investor spectrum.
The current STH realized price is below $59,800, which now forms a key level to watch. It served as support throughout the recovery from the 2022 bear market low, breaking the paradigm only for a brief period in September of last year.
“Will it remain as a support this time?” Philip Swift, founder of Look Into Bitcoin, an on-chain data platform. asked a question.
Two medium-term exponential moving averages (EMAs), known as ‘bull market supports’, are also lined up to act as damage control in the event of a deeper retracement.
“The bullish support band is catching up with the price as we continue to consolidate,” said popular trader Daan Crypto Trades. wrote From his latest post on the subject.
“If we touch them, they will provide good support. It eventually became unnecessary when 2021 broke 2017’s highs, but it took off before the band could catch up.”
Retail investors are returning to Bitcoin.
Despite lackluster BTC price action, retail investor interest is returning in a potential sign of encouragement.
Related: Crypto traders see best ‘altseason’ since 2017 as Bitcoin price cools
like famous According to Checkmate, a pseudonymous senior on-chain analyst at on-chain data platform Glassnode, wallets holding less than 100 BTC are busy increasing their exposure.
He referenced data from his resource Checkonchain, which showed 30-day rolling wallet balances reversing to positive on April 8 for the first time since mid-January.
“The corrupt Bitcoin retail holders, who are expected to sell at the first sign of a correction… …seem to be on the downside once again,” he concluded.
“Shrimp (<1 $BTC) is currently accumulating 12.2k $BTC per month.”
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