If Bitcoin (BTC) follows the bull market trajectory following the previous halving, it could reach a cycle peak of $130,000 to $150,000 between late August and early September, according to cryptocurrency trader Peter Brandt.
The recently passed Bitcoin halving on April 20 is a coded event roughly every four years that cuts mining rewards by 50%, and the halving date “represented almost perfect symmetry within past bull market cycles,” Brandt said in June. I wrote this in my report on the 2nd.
He argued that historically, the Bitcoin halving date falls roughly halfway between the beginning and peak of a bull market.
Brandt’s analysis shows that the last Bitcoin bull market began about 16 months before the halving on May 11, 2020, and that cycle ended about 18 months after that.
Brandt pointed out that the previous two halvings (July 9, 2016 and November 28, 2012) followed a similar pattern.
“If this continues, the next bull market cycle high should occur in late August/early September 2025,” he wrote.
Brandt added that “there is no perfect analytical method” when it comes to guessing Bitcoin’s cycle high. However, past highs have followed a similar growth pattern and if this continues, he puts the bull market high in the “$130,000-$150,000 range.”
Probability that Bitcoin is already in first place
Brandt’s analysis marks December 17, 2022 as the start date for the current bull market. At the time, BTC was trading at around $16,800, but has since risen more than 300% to $67,882, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro.
Related: Why is Bitcoin stagnating despite $2 billion in spot ETF inflows?
However, Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of $73,679 on March 14, and Brandt believes there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its bull market peak as the gains in each bull cycle fall compared to the previous cycle.
If BTC fails to hit a new all-time high and falls below $55,000, the chances of the cryptocurrency experiencing an “exponential collapse” will increase, Brandt says.
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