Bitcoin starts a new week with a completely different mood from June, hitting a weekly low.
Bitcoin (BTC) price action worsened after challenging $70,000 resistance multiple times. What’s next?
As a bullish trading range continues to dominate Bitcoin market movements, traders and analysts are considering what will happen in the near future and whether bulls or bears will dominate.
A series of US macroeconomic data and related Federal Reserve comments appeared to have taken a toll on Bitcoin last week. The largest cryptocurrency fell nearly 5% and briefly fell below $65,000.
Macro factors are set to ease this week, but employment numbers could still be surprising as the US inflation situation is sending mixed signals to risk assets.
Therefore, many people are playing a wait-and-see game regarding BTC/USD. There is little you can do except wait until the range shows signs of shifting.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are adjusting to the new post-halving reality as the “surrender” phase continues to unfold. Network fundamentals are cooling, with mining difficulty expected to decrease by around 1.3% this week.
With all-time highs unlikely to be reached anytime soon, Cointelegraph takes a closer look at key BTC price talking points for market observers and participants.
BTC price dice due to support failure
A bruising week for Bitcoin bulls finally came to an end with BTC/USD down 4.3% at the close of the week, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
After hitting a one-month low, the bulls made a gentle reversal, bringing market focus back to $66,000. This level remains in place as of June 17.
Things could have been worse, but the “red” states offered little hope for those hoping for a clear resistance/support reversal at key levels above $69,000.
“Bitcoin is still red on the 3-day Predator. “There are no significant signs yet of a change in trend.” Trading suite DecenTrader told X’s subscribers about the latest signals from its proprietary trading indicator.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that $66,000 is currently key in terms of order book liquidity, with $67,300 acting similar to resistance.
Thus, a narrow channel evolved as TradFi was unable to change the status quo during the first Asian trading session this week.
“Sidewise price movements are generally not a bad thing. “It’s a lack of patience.” Popular trader Jelle continued in his latest X analysis:
“Like any other time, this matter will definitely be resolved.”
Jelle described the weekend’s moves as “typical” for Bitcoin.
“The bullish divergence is fixed and the price is trying to stay above $66,300. It is time for the bulls to wake up and push this back into range,” he added about the Relative Strength Index (RSI) value.
Others have also tried to find some optimistic notes amid the lackluster BTC price action that has been going on for several weeks now. Among them was commentator Matthew Hyland, who pointed out that Bitcoin’s 10-week simple moving average (SMA) remained unchanged during the recent decline.
Unemployment claims highlight great macro week
After a surge in macroeconomic data in June, next week will bring welcome relief to risk asset traders.
Only US unemployment claims constitute a potential catalyst for volatility across cryptocurrencies, with the sector proving susceptible to unexpected unemployment throughout 2024.
The Juneteenth holiday provides a break for all U.S. markets on June 19, with the deadline to file unemployment claims a day later.
Commenting on this week, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter hinted at the impact of the ongoing data print on market expectations of a significant easing of US monetary policy.
“Large swings in Fed expectations are incredibly profitable for trading this year.” We’ve outlined some of the volatile bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. This is a major bullish driver for Bitcoin and altcoins.
The Fed’s September meeting remains the most likely date for cuts to begin, according to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. There is now only about a 10% chance of the cuts being made at the next meeting in July.
“Last week’s data clearly points to a shift to looser monetary policy, and potentially sooner,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro said as part of an X thread over the weekend.
“The decline reinforces my view of buying opportunities in risky assets such as crypto + stocks.”
Tedtalksmacro agreed that $66,000 is a key level to maintain in the face of macro surprises.
“It is important for Bitcoin to maintain support at $66,000 over the coming week,” he said. If it breaks down, it could allow sellers to gain a foothold in the market and force a quick liquidation in a bull market,” he warned.
Bitcoin miners surrender in earnest
Bitcoin network fundamentals continue to review recent gains as miners face a new period of economic upheaval.
According to BTC.com’s current estimates, mining difficulty is expected to decrease by approximately 1.3% at the next automatic rebalancing on June 20th.
This highlights an overall mixed environment, with miners continuing to adjust to new economic realities after the block subsidy was halved in April.
As Cointelegraph reported, a “surrender” phase is currently underway for the hashrate, with the 30-day moving average below the 60-day moving average. This represents the BTC price stage before the breakout, as seen in the hash ribbon indicator.
“After the recent Bitcoin halving, we have observed difficult conditions for miners for almost a month,” Kripto Mevismi, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of the Quicktake market updates last week.
Miners themselves “do not appear to have the power to significantly influence prices” during the current capitulation period, according to Hash Ribbon analysis.
“Hashribbon analysis and current market dynamics show that the Bitcoin market remains strong despite the challenges miners have faced since the halving. Sustained demand is a positive indicator of market resilience and strength and highlights that current price stability is underpinned by more than just mining activity,” Kripto Mevismi concluded.
“This period demonstrates the market’s ability to maintain solid footing despite potential adversity and is indicative of a strong and healthy Bitcoin ecosystem.”
The last surrender signal for the hash ribbon came in August 2023, when BTC/USD fell to $25,000.
Delete bear market by BTC wallet number
In recent weeks, much research has been done on Bitcoin whale behavior as they continue to accumulate, defying changes in the short-term price narrative.
This has led to the assumption that large traders are overwhelmingly expecting BTC price upside to reemerge, allowing them to easily profit in the coming weeks and months.
Meanwhile, small wallets are experiencing a renaissance.
According to the latest data from research firm Santiment, there are now 16.16 million wallets holding more than 10 BTC, the most since June 2022. This reflects 82% of BTC supply.
“A lot has changed since then, including a 226% increase in Bitcoin’s market value,” noted X in a June 17 post.
Santiment went on to mention the fall of the FTX exchange in late 2022, which triggered a Bitcoin bear capitulation and a bullish comeback in early 2023.
“Many believe that FTX has successfully suppressed cryptocurrency prices in the second half of 2022.”
“However, since the exchange crash in November 2022, an undeniable correlation has emerged between holding more than 10 BTC wallets and the overall market value of the coin.”
Bitcoin ETF Coin Offers “Strong Support Indicators”
Whales are also included in the overall holding trend for 2024.
Related: ETH, TON, UNI, and XMR could rebound as Bitcoin clears $68,000
Coins purchased before the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in January have remained largely dormant since then.
As CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet shows, this practice turns owners into long-term holders rather than mere speculators.
“Right before ETF approval, holders sold Bitcoin (blue box). However, in Green Box, short-term holders accumulated during the integration stage have been converted to long-term holders for 3 to 6 months, and are continuously accumulating without selling (Green Box),” he explained in a Quick Take post last weekend. .
“Most of these holdings belong to whales, so this could be a strong indicator of support.”
As Cointelegraph continues to report, short-term holders of Bitcoin (those who hold a certain amount of BTC for up to 155 days) represent a key support trend line in the current bull market.
Their total cost basis currently stands at just over $62,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.