- The Chicago Board Options Exchange filed an application for the Solana ETF on June 10, 2024.
- Renowned Bloomberg ETF expert offers mixed views on Solana ETF approval
- Analyst argues that Joe Biden’s re-election would be “dead on arrival” for the SOL ETF.
Famed Bloomberg Financial analyst Eric Balchunas has shaken up the cryptocurrency market by saying the upcoming U.S. presidential election could determine the outcome of Solana’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) application.
According to Balchunas, a Biden victory would likely spell doom for Solana’s ETF product. On the other hand, a Donald Trump victory would open the door for crypto regulation, because in that case “anything is possible.” The financial analyst also noted that mid-March 2025 is likely to be the deadline for the SOL ETF decision.
What are the chances of a Solana ETF being approved?
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) filed two Form 19b-4 applications on behalf of VanEck and 21 Shares two days ago. The applications disclose several key features of SOL, which serve as arguments for the native coin of a Layer-1 blockchain being listed in an ETF product. For example, the description states, “Like Bitcoin and ETH, the exchange believes that SOL is resistant to price manipulation.”
The Chicago-based exchange also acknowledged in a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the attempt to manipulate the price of Solana (SOL) was a wash trade, but said it did not affect prices on major exchanges because “participants will generally ignore markets with quotes that they deem unexecutable.”
Despite these developments, the overall belief that the Solana ETF will be approved by the end of 2024 remains at just 10%, according to the latest PolyMarket poll. However, SEC guidelines state that Gensler’s team has 240 days to make a decision after the revised filing is submitted, so this shouldn’t diminish the likelihood that the Solana ETF will be approved in 2025.
On the other side
- Several crypto enthusiasts on X suspect that Valchuna’s tweet is politically motivated, as Bloomberg’s ETF analyst did not explicitly address why a Biden re-election would eliminate the possibility of a Solana ETF.
Why this matters
As major jurisdictions explore cryptocurrency adoption, discussions around blockchain technology are becoming a central part of the global political landscape.
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