Bitcoin is eyeing a massive $70,000 peak in July, and that peak is approaching as the monthly close approaches.
With the BTC price expected to move turbulently in the coming days, bulls are attempting to regain lost support at key psychological levels.
Will they succeed? That’s the question on everyone’s mind as Bitcoin returns to levels it hasn’t seen in nearly two months.
The weekly close was not disappointing, saving the market from the “red” candle, but continued momentum is now essential.
On paper, things look promising: miners are recovering, macroeconomic signals are increasingly favoring risk assets, and traders are betting that Bitcoin’s post-halving rally will be over.
Still, there is room for flash volatility. The Federal Reserve will decide whether to change interest rates this week, and Chairman Jerome Powell could move markets in an instant with a press release.
U.S. unemployment data is released over the weekend, providing the last opportunity for cryptocurrency prices to move erratically.
Cointelegraph takes a closer look at this topic as BTC/USD faces a crucial retest of its final resistance level before making its all-time high.
Bitcoin rebounds as grill final BTC price resistance
Bitcoin bulls got a final break from the last weekly close as the weekly candle turned from red to green.
Bitcoin, which traded at around $68,265 on Bitstamp, ended a tumultuous weekend at levels that set the stage for further gains during the Asian trading session on July 29, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
As a result, a new multi-week high was recorded, with BTC/USD reaching $69,848 for the first time since June 10.
Unsurprisingly, traders are in positive mood as Bitcoin approaches key resistance levels below its March all-time high.
Popular trader Zell wrote in one of his recent posts on X, “Bitcoin is subject to wild price fluctuations for months after each halving.”
“Once that phase is over, the real bull market begins. This time, it probably won’t be any different.”
Meanwhile, resistance remains strong, with the closest sell block at $70,400 at the time of writing, according to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass. As Cointelegraph reported, a surge in price could potentially liquidate billions of dollars in short positions.
The biggest topic of conversation in recent days has been a speech given by US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee.
Trump, along with his rival Robert F. Kennedy Jr., have pledged to transfer 200,000 BTC confiscated by the U.S. government into a strategic reserve if elected.
As rumored, President Trump’s confirmation did not bring about any significant change in the price of BTC itself, which actually began to decline in the hours following.
But for trader Daan Crypto Trades, it’s just a matter of time, as he recently suggested in X Content that the “real move” in BTC/USD may have just begun.
“Rumors started last week that Trump would announce a strategic Bitcoin stockpile. During that time, $BTC was mostly up, while stocks were taking a huge hit,” he summarized.
“Normally BTC would have dropped significantly in this bear market. But it didn’t, and I think that’s largely what contributed to this story. We were likely trading 5-10% higher than we ‘should’ have been because of this.”
FOMC Week Starts with US Debt Milestone
With the U.S. national debt reaching $35 trillion for the first time in history, the power to move crypto markets this week will largely rest with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
At his press conferences following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest interest rate decision, the tone of language used alone can indicate longer-term expectations about economic policy.
Still, the market sees little surprise in the decision itself, as no rate cut is expected until the next FOMC meeting in September.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool show there is a nearly 96% chance that rates will remain flat this month. On the contrary, they have fully priced in some form of cut in September.
This reduction is of major interest to cryptocurrency and risk asset traders, as it is expected to improve overall investment liquidity.
But the Fed isn’t the only one this week. The US unemployment claims numbers are also due to be released following the FOMC announcement, which could add to the surprise moves in the crypto markets.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in a thread titled X: “Volatility is back as we head into another crazy week.”
“This week we have economic data, earnings and the July Federal Reserve meeting all happening at the same time.”
Popular trader CrypNuevo warned that there may be instances where Powell plays it safe and avoids any clear commitment to cutting rates, commenting on the macro outlook going forward.
“I imagine a situation where it’s like, ‘Once we see that inflation goes back down to 2%, we’re going to cut rates, and to do that we have to rely on data. We have to look at the data that’s coming out over the next two months,'” he told his X followers over the weekend.
“If so, the market could experience volatility due to investor disappointment.”
So, while BTC/USD is likely to bounce after the FOMC, we still expect a retest of liquidity near the all-time highs on high timeframe analysis.
“Such highs have not been recorded for some time, which is creating an OI gap and a lot of liquidations on HTFs,” CrypNuevo added, citing open interest and liquidity areas.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Set to Reach New High
Bitcoin network fundamentals are wasting no time this week showing which side miners are on in the bullish/bearish battle.
According to the latest estimates from monitoring resource BTC.com, Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to hit a new all-time high on July 31.
This will be realized when the massive 8% difficulty increase becomes a reality, but it still depends on the cost efficiency of miners.
The surge follows a 3.2% increase from two weeks ago, which would put the deficit at $88.61 trillion.
As Cointelegraph reported, a miner renaissance has been predicted for some time now, with the hashrate and related hash ribbon indicators signaling the end of the miner “surrender” phase following the halving.
The latest raw data from MiningPoolStats shows that the hashrate continues to decline below its all-time high of 665 exahashes per second (EH/s).
Concerns Over BTC Miner Selling Rise Again
However, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warned that the recovery is still in its early stages after analyzing the overall profitability of the mining sector.
Contributor XBTManager noted that the Miner Position Index (MPI) remains at “very low levels.”
“This adds some selling pressure to the current structure, but doesn’t create significant selling pressure overall,” he wrote in one of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog posts.
XBTManager seemed more concerned about the outflow of BTC from known miner wallets, suggesting that selling is accelerating rather than slowing down at current price levels.
“Miner outflows continue to increase after the $53,000 support level,” he explained.
“Bitcoin has been observed leaving miner wallets at current price levels, which could potentially trigger selling pressure. A similar instance was observed on May 21.”
The date coincided with BTC/USD breaking above $71,000, a level that formed a local high ahead of the low of $53,000 recorded in early July.
Sentiment is that BTC price will hit an all-time high in Q3
The fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies has returned to levels not seen since early June.
Related: How High Can BTC Price Go After Trump’s Tough Speech on Bitcoin?
The classic cryptocurrency market sentiment indicator is on the verge of a return to “extreme greed,” which is to be expected as Bitcoin overcomes its last hurdle before price discovery.
Fear and Greed rose a whopping 50 points in just two weeks, hitting a score of 74 out of 100 on July 28.
As Cointelegraph reported over the weekend, bullish sentiment among cryptocurrency traders has hit its highest level in the past few weeks and 16 months since the bull market began.
Research firm Santiment, which collected the data, released a survey last week asking followers when they thought Bitcoin would recover to its all-time high of $73,800 since March.
Most respondents guessed this would happen by the end of October.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.