One analyst claims that it could take months for Bitcoin (BTC) to bounce back and catch up with the price of gold.
In an August 13 post, the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments said that BTC price action still “looks promising.”
According to a “rough rule of thumb,” Bitcoin lags gold
Bitcoin has been range-bound in recent months, disappointing on a macro level as other assets have surged.
Before last week’s sell-off, both gold and U.S. stock indices were hitting record highs, but Bitcoin failed to keep up.
Now Capriole’s Edwards says the wait may not be that long.
Edwards uploaded a chart comparing gold and Bitcoin price movements since late 2019, concluding that once gold starts to show a new trend, it will take time for Bitcoin to catch up.
If we overlay XAU/USD on BTC/USD, it becomes clear that Bitcoin has a lag period of around 3 months.
“In my experience, the macro trend for Bitcoin often lags gold by a few months,” he said.
“It looks promising.”
BTC Price Growth Is “Favorable” According to Forecasts
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, XAU/USD recently hit its all-time high in mid-July.
Related: FTX Crash More ‘Extremely Fearful’ Than Ever – 5 Things to Know About Bitcoin This Week
Looking ahead, other popular Bitcoin market commentators have suggested that the gold narrative could have consequences for long-term investors next year.
William Clemente, co-founder of cryptocurrency research firm Reflexivity, highlighted another chart comparing gold price movements since the launch of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2004.
“Gold has been consolidating for about 10-12 months since its inception before it starts to mark up,” he wrote on X, along with a chart from Quinn Thompson, founder and CIO of macro cryptocurrency hedge fund Lekker Capital.
“If BTC follows suit, it will join other factors to deliver favorable performance through 2025.”
When you zoom in, both gold and Bitcoin are in a privileged position. Even after the early August drop, Bitcoin remains the best-performing macro asset this year, followed by gold.
“Bitcoin and gold are currently the top performing major assets in 2024. Going back to 2011, we have never had these two in the #1/2 spot in any calendar year,” Charlie Vilello, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning, wrote in an Aug. 4 X commentary.
BTC/USD is up 34% since the beginning of the year, while XAU/USD is up around 19%.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.