Popular cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that macroeconomic indicators will lead to altcoins eroding Bitcoin (BTC) dominance in the coming months.
In a new YouTube video, Cowen introduces his 807,000 subscribers to the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, which tracks signals that could indicate the beginning of a recession.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, this indicator flashes “when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises 0.50 percentage points or more from its lowest reading over the past 12 months.” The indicator reached 0.53 percentage points in July.
Cowen explains:
“The point is that it’s sending a signal, which means that whether you believe a recession is coming or not, looser monetary policy is coming. That’s what it means. And if looser monetary policy comes, Bitcoin dominance will peak relatively quickly. In theory, it could already have happened, but I still think it’s going to be September at the earliest, December at the latest. That’s my general view, and I’m starting to see some of the reasons why.
The labor market is weak. Look at the job openings per unemployed person. They are back to pre-pandemic levels. They haven’t cut rates yet. Until they do, things are likely to get worse.”
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