Classic ‘Rektember?’ 5 Things to Know About Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin starts September with a downturn, with both the monthly and weekly closes signaling a decline in the BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $57,000, close to spot demand, and there is a clear lack of bullish sentiment as analysis shows low interest among traders.

Will there be another “Rektember” on the market?

While this month has solidified Bitcoin’s status as a “red” patch for returns, not all predictions point to the worst.

relevant: Bitcoin Price Volatility Expected at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September Meeting – Here’s How to Prepare

The mid-$60,000 range remains a notable short-term BTC price target, with September also marking the end of Bitcoin’s post-halving “reaccumulation range.”

Macroeconomic conditions are expected to remain subdued this week, with the unemployment rate likely to be a key focus as no major U.S. indicators are released.

With Bitcoin undergoing rapid change, Cointelegraph takes a look at the biggest conversations among market participants as the new month begins.

BTC Price Hits Lowest Price in August

Bitcoin has not been impressive in recent months, and conditions remain volatile.

According to data provided by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the bulls were powerless to overcome the selling pressure, which popular trader Skew noted was characteristic of short-term market conditions.

“There has been solid spot buyers near $58,000 for most of the past week, which is important context for a bounce,” he wrote in a recent piece on X Analysis.

“Current price is similar to spot demand, but will require confirmation of demand from takers and passive buyers.”

Nonetheless, Skew suggested that funding rates could remain “negative or low” for the time being, highlighting the widespread lack of interest in derivatives markets at current prices.

“Overall, I think the market is likely to favor short-term selling as a hedge after last week’s spot sell-off,” he added.

“But there has been virtually no growth in market positioning since the sell-off at $58,000, which means people have pulled out of the trade.”

As of September 2, when this article was written, most of the bid support was clustered around $56,750, according to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

Other traders see a potential push to local lows before the uptrend eases, with expected prices at $56,000 and $54,000.

“They are more likely to sweep the Tuesday low and push the price up to 56k and then move higher. Remember, they can still try to scam the price up to 49k (the low on Monday, August 5th),” Madara predicted.

“If the bounce happens after 56k, my prediction is 60.5k as the first move and then 65k.”

My fellow trader Captain Pivik suggests that this relief rebound could push the market to $68,000 this month.

Labor Day Week: U.S. Jobs in the Spotlight

With U.S. markets closed for the Labor Day holiday on September 2, investors will likely wait until the weekend for any macroeconomic volatility to kick in.

Macroeconomic data is crucial as markets build anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on September 18.

According to the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the most likely outcome from the current meeting is a rate cut of at least 0.25%.

This is the opposite of what was expected a month ago when a 0.5% cut was in the spotlight amid the turmoil in Japan.

This week will likely be dominated by the US unemployment rate, with the month expected to be a quiet start overall.

“We expect volatility to increase and trading conditions to improve as we focus on August jobs data,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter tells X Followers.

Kobeishi revealed how far the stock market has recovered since its lows in early August, with the S&P 500 adding an average of $250 billion per trading day since then.

In another X thread, it was mentioned that “S&P 500 added annualized return in 20 trading days.”

As Cointelegraph reported, stocks and gold have outperformed the cryptocurrency market significantly in recent weeks, while Bitcoin continues to languish despite recovering by as much as 40% at one point.

Is everyone going to welcome “Red” September?

BTC/USD fell 8.6% in August, setting the tone for a bleak September.

According to data from CoinGlass, the ninth month of the year tends to be a losing month in itself, with an average drawdown of around 4.5%.

August, on the other hand, tends to be a “green” month and has historically underperformed this year.

Nonetheless, it could all just be a matter of timing and history could still be on the bull’s side.

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital suggested in a recent market commentary that BTC/USD is still struggling to find a breakout post-halving, much like it did during previous halving periods.

“History shows that Bitcoin tends to explode 150-160 days after the halving,” he explained in an August 31 post on X.

“This means that Bitcoin will exit the reaccumulation range by the end of September 2024.”

Rekt Capital acknowledged that even in September, when Bitcoin was at an all-time high, it had a 6% return. However, October could be the game-changer, with an average monthly return of nearly 23%.

He concluded, “I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin consolidates a bit further into late September to achieve an October breakout.”

“After all, October has historically always been a strong month.”

The Puell Multiple signals a buying opportunity.

The notion that Bitcoin is in a transitional phase within a bull market is also supported by the classic Puell Multiple indicator.

The multiple compares the value of all bitcoins mined each day to a 365-day moving average to determine relative buy and sell zones.

As defined by CryptoQuant, Puell answers the question: “If all mined bitcoins were immediately sold on the market, how profitable would mining pools be compared to historical figures over the past year?”

Currently Puell is not forecasting a macro top or bottom, but rather a slow move into the green long-term “buy” zone, characterized by readings below 0.5.

As Cointelegraph reported, stable market entry may not be possible unless it is significantly below the current spot price.

“Based on our analysis of the trends over the last 10 years, when the index dips below the 0.6 threshold, it is often an ideal opportunity for a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. Conversely, when the index breaks above the 0.8 level, it is historically associated with bullish market behavior, with prices often shooting to new all-time highs (ATHs),” contributor Grizzly wrote in one of CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog posts over the weekend.

“The current Puell Multiple is fluctuating between these two important levels.” Bitcoin Puell Multiple chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Deep Learning Model Favors BTC Price Rebound

September is traditionally a “red” month for BTC/USD, but new analysis suggests that 2024 could end up being the exception.

In another Quicktake post from September 1st, CryptoQuant used the WaveNet deep learning model to predict a “relative increase” in the BTC price.

A similar experiment conducted in June accurately predicted that prices would move sideways just below $60,000 in the following month.

According to contributing analyst CryptoOnchain, who collected the latest data, this was an “acceptable and realistic prediction.”

“For this purpose, we used all data from 2012 to today as features. The output of the WaveNet model shows the relative probability of Bitcoin price going up in the next month,” he commented.

relevant: Bitcoin is capped at $60k, but LTC, FET, MNT and AAVE look promising.

The chart for the results shows that the price action is skewed upwards, with a 50% chance that the price will slightly exceed $65,000 in September.

CryptoOnchain explains, “A range of 0.5 shows an area where there is a 50% chance that the Bitcoin price will be in that range, while a range of 0.9 shows an area where there is a 90% chance that the Bitcoin price will be in that range.”

This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.