Wintermute, an algorithmic cryptocurrency trader and liquidity provider, is launching the OutcomeMarket US Presidential Election Prediction Market, powered by Chaos Labs’ Edge Proofs Oracle. HARRIS and TRUMP tokens will be available on multiple blockchains starting the fourth week of September.
Permissionless smart contracts developed by Wintermute allow prediction markets to be accessible on Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum, without requiring users of those chains to wire assets to participate.
Flexible and stable prediction market
The tokens are tradable on any centralized or decentralized platform and can be used in DeFi applications. Bebop, WOO and Backpack will be the first cryptocurrency exchanges to list HARRIS and TRUMP. Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy said:
“There has been significant interest in listing these prediction market contracts on both centralized and decentralized exchanges, but no one has developed one without permission or without charging minting or trading fees.”
The Chaos Labs oracle “uniquely integrates advanced AI and LLM with risk models,” said Omer Goldberg, CEO of Chaos Labs, “providing highly accurate and tamper-proof data feeds while embedding real-time risk assessments directly into the protocol.” Wintermute invested in Chaos Labs.
relevant: Prediction markets are the killer blockchain app we’ve been waiting for.
Americans may not win even if their candidate wins.
Prediction markets allow people to bet on whether a certain statement will turn out to be true or an event will occur in the future by purchasing tokens that represent the outcome they expect. Prediction markets are highly susceptible to manipulation. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has argued that:
In August, the CFTC proposed a rule banning event contracts (prediction market tokens) under pressure from U.S. lawmakers. A CFTC order to stop Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, from betting on the U.S. presidential election results was overturned by the court. However, the court later granted a stay preventing Kalshi from conducting election betting. Market leader Polymarket does not allow U.S. users.
“It’s up to the exchanges that list their markets to decide how to manage their U.S. exposure, but I’m sure most, if not all, of them already don’t allow U.S. customers,” Gaevoy told Bloomberg regarding OutcomeMarket.
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