Prediction markets are effective at predicting elections because polls become less accurate over time, according to Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour.
“Prediction markets work better, they do,” Mansour told The Block.
Prediction markets like Kalshi provide real-time information, unlike opinion polls that can take up to two weeks, Mansour said. In particular, in the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton was expected to win in national opinion polls, and in late 2020, it was found that support for Donald Trump was misjudged. In this year’s election, pollsters are said to be taking various strategies to obtain more accurate results. CNBC.
Mansour attributed the poll’s inaccuracy to bias and polarization. “It’s a lot harder to lie when you have some money,” Mansour said of prediction markets.
“You’re actually much more authentic, which is why these markets work so well,” Mansour said.
Kalshi scored a big win this week after an appeals court cleared prediction markets to list election bets. This comes about a year after the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Kalsi could not offer election contracts, was “against the public interest” and had ties to gambling. Kalshi filed a lawsuit.
Last month, Judge Jia M. Cobb of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia dominate The CFTC allegedly exceeded its authority by opposing prediction market Kalshi’s move to list the contract. The agency then quickly appealed the ruling, but it was ultimately dismissed.
Kalshi currently allows people to bet on which party will win the U.S. House of Representatives or the Senate. Mansour said Kalshi will be releasing the following: market This is where people can bet on who will win the US presidential election on Thursday or Friday.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based competitive betting market, has an open market for the upcoming presidential election with a cumulative betting volume of more than $1 billion.
The CFTC has expressed concerns about election integrity regarding betting on the outcomes of various political races. during hearing Last month, CFTC General Counsel Rob Schwartz said betting on elections would undermine the integrity of the election. The agency also Create rules There is a proposal in the works to ban betting on political events, although it has not yet been adopted.
Mansour said the CFTC’s concerns were “unfounded.” He said changing election perceptions was “mechanically impossible.” For example, if someone spends millions of dollars to misinform the public about a candidate, the price may move 1 or 2 percent, but arbitrageurs will bring it back within minutes, Mansour said.
“These markets actually bring more truth to the system,” Mansour said. “They do better than the polls say.”
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