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The crypto industry has seen its fair share of forecasts and theories that have crashed harder than a poorly coded smart contract.
From the never-ending quest to dox Satoshi Nakamoto to the laughably wrong idea that Gary Gensler would be good for crypto, here are some crypto theories and beliefs that turned out to be misguided at best.
1. Peter Todd is Satoshi
Every few months, someone comes forward claiming to have definitive proof of Nakamoto’s identity — or worse, claiming to be the creator of Bitcoin themselves. Yet, time and again, these “discoveries” unravel under scrutiny, revealing more about the allure of the mystery than any solid evidence.
We’ve seen faked documents, misinterpreted cryptographic signatures, and linguistic analyses attempting to trace Satoshi’s origins — all leading to red herrings and inevitable public retractions. Some think the NSA is Satoshi and invented Bitcoin as a honey trap for criminals, while others tip Elon Musk or Snowcrash author Neal Stephenson.
In other words, pretty much anyone who was older than 15 in 2008 and had an internet connection has been suggested as a possible Satoshi.
The latest round of rumors came thanks to this week’s HBO documentary, which named Bitcoin developer Peter Todd as the creator of Bitcoin. The doco made a lot of hay from some interesting circumstantial evidence but few people think it’s cleared up the mystery of who Satoshi is.
Conclusively proving Todd isn’t Satoshi isn’t easy, but the evidence for believing he is Satoshi is not particularly compelling.
In the lead-up to HBO’s reveal, Polymarket bettors speculated on who HBO might name, with guesses ranging from the late cryptographer Len Sassaman to computer scientist Nick Szabo.
In the end, HBO named Todd, who denied the claim … but admitted to being Craig Wright.
Related: Everything HBO’s Bitcoin doc got wrong about Peter Todd and Satoshi
2. Gary Gensler’s crypto knowledge means he’s good for Bitcoin
Gary Gensler, once heralded as a beacon of hope by the crypto community, assumed his role as chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on April 17, 2021.
Gensler’s appointment was initially met with enthusiasm, as industry participants expressed relief to have an MIT blockchain professor at the helm who seemed to genuinely understand cryptocurrency.
How naive we were.
Turns out, Professor Gensler was less about blockchain buddy-ness and more about rulebook thumping.
If Donald Trump gets elected, he’s promised to remove Gensler before the SEC chairman’s term expires in 2026. If that happens his crypto legacy will have been marked by a contentious regulation-by-enforcement approach that targeted major industry players and has often been blamed for driving key talent overseas.
Despite his best efforts, Gensler’s tenure also saw the approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US, showing no one man can hold back the tide of progress.
Also read: 11 critical moments in Ethereum’s history that made it the No.2 blockchain
3. CryptoKitties and NFTs are the future: The metaverse is coming
Launched in November 2017, CryptoKitties quickly became a cultural phenomenon and introduced the concept of non-fungible tokens (NFT) to the broader blockchain community.
The CryptoKitties frenzy saw investors chasing these digital felines like real-life treasure, but the excitement quickly faded.
The most expensive CryptoKitty was purchased for 600 ETH in September 2019, worth around $172,000 at the time. This was a defining moment that showcased that NFTs can be more than just JPEGs for nerds.
Today, in 2024, 600 ETH is roughly worth $1.5 million, while the average CryptoKitty is worth $21.
Bored Ape Yacht Club followed and was once a status symbol talked up by the world’s top stars like rap legend Eminem and NBA star Stephen Curry. As of Oct. 9, the floor price of Bored Apes was down to 10.83 ETH, from a peak of 153 ETH.
For a while there in 2021, digital ownership via NFTs was said to usher in the age of the metaverse — a theory that turned into a full-blown hype when Facebook changed its name to Meta and burned billions of dollars researching the concept.
The slow adoption of VR hardware and the end of the NFT bubble, however, has seen interest in the metaverse fade… although some true believers still think it will come about in a longer timeframe.
4. Sam Bankman-Fried is a hero who will take crypto mainstream
Sam Bankman-Fried was once the crypto community’s white knight, having been handed the keys to rescue SushiSwap and swooping in to bail out companies during the Terra-Luna and Three Arrows Capital fallout.
His platform, FTX, was hailed as innovative and leading the way in the mainstream adoption of crypto through its focus on attracting sports fans via high-profile sponsorships. With magazine covers and political clout, Bankman-Fried was becoming a household name who seemed poised to flip the industry’s tarnished reputation.
But the exact opposite happened. In late 2022, the curtain fell. Reports exposed FTX’s use of customer funds for risky trades via Alameda Research — Bankman-Fried’s other venture —prompting a panic-driven bank run. Desperate, he turned to Binance for a bailout, and for a moment, hope flickered. Yet, after peeking at FTX’s books, Binance backed away.
Days later, FTX declared bankruptcy, Bankman-Fried stepped down as CEO, and he is now serving a 25-year prison sentence, with his crimes having wiped out crypto for at least 18 months.
5. Algorithmic stablecoins are a new financial paradigm
The crypto community eagerly boarded the UST (TerraUSD) ship, with endorsements from industry figures touting it as the unsinkable algorithmic stablecoin.
Galaxy Digital billionaire Mike Novogratz invested heavily in the Terra Luna ecosystem and even tattooed the project on his arm.
But like the Titanic, UST met its iceberg in May 2022, when a toxic mix of market volatility and some suspicious transactions led to a catastrophic unraveling.
UST was designed to hold a steady $1 value through a mint-and-burn algorithm that balanced it with its sister token, Luna. The concept caught fire, and investors hailed it as a DeFi game-changer.
But when massive sell-offs hit, the system’s supposed stability mechanism went haywire, minting Luna in absurd amounts to prop up UST. The circular collateralization method turned into a death spiral that sent UST plunging well below its dollar peg, wiping out billions in value and crushing investor dreams.
In the aftermath, Terra’s founder, Do Kwon, fled, only to be apprehended in Montenegro with false documents, while Terraform Labs faced SEC charges and ultimately settled for billions.
6. McAfee pre-dicks Bitcoin will hit $1 million
John McAfee, one of the most flamboyant figures in the tech world, made one of the boldest — and most bizarre — bets in cryptocurrency history. In 2017, he publicly declared that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by the end of 2020 or he’d consume his own penis on live television.
Then he doubled down and made the price prediction $1 million, lest his genitals be consumed in a broadcast.
As the deadline approached, Bitcoin’s price remained nowhere near the million-dollar mark or the half-million-dollar mark, and the crypto community eagerly watched for McAfee’s next move.
In true McAfee fashion, he eventually dismissed the bet as a publicity stunt, calling it a “ruse” to attract attention to cryptocurrency.
In 2019, McAfee was arrested on charges related to tax evasion, and in 2021 was found dead in a Spanish prison cell while pending extradition to the US. His death was ruled a suicide.
Former chief technology officer of Coinbase Balaji Srinivasan made an even more ill-advised bet that Bitcoin would hit $1 million within 90 days of March 17, 2023. It did not and he was forced to pay out the bet.
As of Oct. 9, Bitcoin had yet to hit $1 million.
7. Vitalik Buterin is dead
Rumors of Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin’s demise were greatly exaggerated when a 2017 viral post claimed he had died in a car crash.
With no official news sources to confirm or deny the claim, panic ensued, and Ethereum’s price took an immediate nosedive, shedding billions in market value as investors reacted to the unverified story.
The speculation grew so intense that Buterin himself felt compelled to address it in a uniquely Ethereum way.
He posted a photo on social media holding a piece of paper with a recent Ethereum block number, essentially using the blockchain as a timestamp to prove he was alive and well.
8. Hold On For Dear Life
HODL has become a rallying cry for crypto enthusiasts who insist it means Hold On For Dear Life, capturing the high-stakes thrill of crypto’s notorious volatility.
This interpretation fits perfectly with the sentiment of many in the crypto space who brace themselves through wild price swings, convinced that patience will be rewarded in the end even as they round trip millions to end up with $6.35 in worthless tokens.
As it happens, the term HODL was just a typo.
It first appeared in 2013 on a Bitcoin forum, when user GameKyuubi, in a drunken post titled “I AM HODLING,” accidentally misspelled “hold” while venting about the challenges of staying invested during a market downturn.
The original post wasn’t advocating blind commitment but rather expressing frustration and determination to ride out that particular downturn.
Also read: Bitcoin HODL Waves: 2020 bull market buyers now control 16% of supply
9. Facebook is going to revolutionize global payments with cryptocurrency
For a while there, Facebook’s Libra was heralded as the cryptocurrency project that would take the space mainstream and global.
Libra was hyped to be the new currency to dominate them all, challenging even the US dollar’s global supremacy. Facebook’s (now Meta’s) plan for a world-spanning digital currency seemed poised for success, with backing from heavyweights like Mastercard, Visa and PayPal.
But regulators quickly rained on the parade, raising concerns over data privacy, monetary sovereignty and potential money laundering.
Faced with such opposition, Libra’s initial supporters started to jump ship. Within months, key partners pulled out, taking a hefty chunk of Libra’s credibility with them.
In a bid to survive, Facebook rebranded the project as Diem and scaled it down to a dollar-pegged stablecoin. But even this rebranding couldn’t escape regulatory limbo.
Eventually, the beleaguered project was sold to Silvergate Capital in early 2022, only for Silvergate itself to declare bankruptcy in September 2024. Libra — or Diem, as it was later known — proved that not even Facebook could force a new global currency into existence without facing monumental resistance.
But the Move language, which Facebook spent a billion dollars developing, lives on in projects like Aptos, Sui and Movement.
10. Amazon is going to accept Bitcoin this time for sure!
Every so often, the crypto world buzzes with rumors that Amazon is finally about to accept Bitcoin.
The e-commerce giant’s influence is enough to spark a flurry of tweets, think pieces, and daydreams about filling up Amazon carts with digital gold. For a fleeting moment, crypto enthusiasts feel mainstream adoption is just a checkout button away.
But time after time, Amazon either denies the rumors outright or stays silent, leaving hopes dashed. While the company has posted intriguing blockchain-related jobs and filed patents, it’s yet to make any move toward accepting Bitcoin.
Instead, Amazon seems more interested in exploring blockchain behind the scenes, likely for supply chain or financial purposes, rather than consumer payments.
Amazon still doesn’t accept Bitcoin.
Until then, you can find a local business that does — or head to El Salvador, where Bitcoin is king. Or, you know, just HODL a little harder.
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Yohan Yun
Yohan Yun is a multimedia journalist covering blockchain since 2017. He has contributed to crypto media outlet Forkast as an editor and has covered Asian tech stories as an assistant reporter for Bloomberg BNA and Forbes. He spends his free time cooking, and experimenting with new recipes.