Ethereum Falls to 42-Month Low Against Bitcoin — Is the Bottom Near?

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), continues to lose strength against Bitcoin (BTC), with the ETH/BTC pair sitting at around 0.0365 BTC as of October 25, its lowest level since April 2021.

Disappointing exchange-traded fund launches and increased competition from smart contract rival Solana have dampened trader interest in Ethereum in 2024.

These factors could continue to put downward pressure on ETH/BTC in the coming months, and technical indicators could also suggest this.

ETH price could fall another 15%.

Ethereum’s continued price decline appears to be the breakdown phase of the typical IC&H (Inverted Cup and Handle) pattern.

After reaching its peak, it began an upward trend forming a rounded top, similar to an inverted U-shaped “cup”. After the Inverse Cup, a small and temporary rebound (handle) appeared, forming a bullish section that rose slightly or moved sideways.

relevant: Ethereum ICO participant dumped 3,000 ETH to cash out $7.6 million.

The IC&H pattern usually resolves when the price breaks below the neckline support and falls to a level with a length equal to the maximum distance between the cup high and the neckline.

As of October 25, ETH/BTC has entered the same analysis phase and is looking at a downside target of around 0.0319 BTC, down more than 15% from its current price.

Ethereum rises, expected to rebound by 25% to 50%

Ethereum could enter a new bullish cycle against Bitcoin after reaching the IC&H pattern target. This closely aligns with the bearish setup shared by Aksel Kibar, certified market technician and former fund manager.

Kibar expects the ETH/BTC pair to fall to 0.029 BTC, calling it a key “inflection point,” followed by a 200% rally in the test of 2021 support.

The prospect of ETH/BTC rebounding in the 0.029-0.0319 BTC range is further enhanced by the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which fell to historic lows as of October 25th.

The monthly RSI for ETH/BTC, at around 33, is just 2 points above the oversold threshold of 30. A potential decline in this pair in the coming months could be accompanied by the monthly RSI becoming “oversold” for the first time in history, suggesting that the market could become overextended. disadvantage.

If RSI falls into oversold territory, sellers may become exhausted, increasing the likelihood of a bullish reversal. This is because so-called “oversold” RSI levels suggest that the asset is undervalued and could bounce, and are therefore considered a potential buying opportunity.

If a bullish reversal occurs, ETH/BTC could target the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around 0.0482 BTC. Additionally, the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA, red wave) located near 0.0549 BTC would act as another key upside target.

This means that ETH/BTC could recover between 25% and 50% in 2025 as measured by current price levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.