Bettors are going all-in on the U.S. presidential election as voters flock to the polls on November 5, with trading volume reaching nearly $4 billion across major prediction markets, according to a Cointelegraph analysis.
Web3-based Polymarket has emerged as the dominant political betting platform. Despite being banned in the U.S., more than $3.3 billion was traded in the presidential race, according to the PolyMarket website.
But new betting platforms in the US, including Kalshi, Robinhood and Interactive Brokers, have quickly gained popularity since their launch in October.
According to the application’s website, they have collectively attracted more than $500 million into the presidential election betting market.
Republican candidate Donald Trump leads Harris in the top prediction platforms.
As of the announcement on November 5, PolyMarket estimates Trump’s odds of winning at nearly 62%. Kalshi and Interactive Brokers estimate it to be around 58%, according to the app’s website.
Source: Polymarket
The election betting market allows users to purchase contracts with a binary payout structure linked to the outcome of a political event.
They cover everything from the U.S. presidential election to Senate campaigns, cabinet appointments and even the possible resignation of New York City Mayor Eric Adams.
Among the most popular contracts are bets on the popular vote and the winning candidate’s margin of victory.
These contracts collectively generated close to $1 billion in trading activity across platforms, according to Cointelegraph’s analysis of public data.
Source: Kalsi
fierce competition
Kalshi listed a betting contract on the outcome of the US election on October 7 after winning a landmark legal battle in September.
This was the first time an election prediction market was allowed to operate in the United States, paving the way for others to join the fray.
Afterwards, the competition became even more heated.
Cryptocurrency and stock trading platform Robinhood introduced a contract on October 28 that allows certain users to bet on the outcome of the presidential election.
According to a November 5 post on the
Interactive Brokers also launched an election betting market in October. The presidential election market saw transactions worth about $50 million.
On October 28, Kalshi Kalshi started accepting deposits in USD Coin (USDC), a popular stablecoin. In a post on the X platform, Kalshi said he added USDC deposits from blockchain network Polygon on November 5.
Polymarket rules governing payouts for 2024 US Presidential Election prediction markets. Source: Polymarket
fear of manipulation
Last October, Polymarkets came under fire after multiple investigations found that about 30% of bets on the U.S. presidential election came from wash trading, a method of market manipulation designed to artificially increase trading volume.
Meanwhile, five large polymarket investors reportedly bought more than half of the stock, betting on a Trump victory, according to anonymous political gambler Dormer.
Payouts to Polymarket chairman bettors could be delayed until January 20, 2025, unless the Associated Press, Fox and NBC all agree on a clear winner.
Last September, Kalshi won a lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) challenging the regulator’s decision to bar Kalshi from listing his political event contracts.
The CFTC has said election prediction markets like Kalshi threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public opinion more accurately than polls.
“(E)vent contract markets are a valuable public good with no evidence of significant manipulation or widespread use for the nefarious purposes alleged by the Commission,” Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, said in an August comment letter. Submitted to CFTC.
Last August, financial data and news service Bloomberg LP added Polymarket’s election odds data to its terminal.
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