Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high of $99,609 on November 22 before facing an 8.2% decline over four days. The decline resulted in the liquidation of $250 million in bullish leveraged positions, but did not cause panic or push major indices into bearish territory. .
Bitcoin futures total liquidation, USD. Source: Coinglass
As shown in the purple area, the 22.6% price surge from November 9 to November 13 resulted in $342 million in buyer liquidation through BTC futures contracts. Therefore, this price correction does not necessarily signal a trend reversal, but rather reflects temporary excessive leverage by derivatives traders.
It is important to evaluate the activities of Bitcoin miners to assess whether the inability to breach the $100,000 psychological threshold has affected investor sentiment. Collectively, these companies hold approximately 1.8 million BTC (worth over $166.3 billion) and are responsible for releasing 3.125 BTC per block mined.
Bitcoin miners’ net position change, BTC. Source: Glassnode
Recent data shows that miners have been reducing their Bitcoin positions at a rate of about 2,500 BTC per day, or the equivalent of $231 million. On the other hand, the U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded an average daily inflow of $670 million from November 18 to 22.
Some people attribute the failure to exceed the $100,000 level to miner selling, but this explanation seems insufficient. Notably, MicroStrategy announced a $5.4 billion Bitcoin acquisition on November 25, demonstrating strong institutional demand.
Long-term (5+ months) net position change, BTC. Source: Glassnode
Long-term holders also contributed to the selling pressure. The historical pattern shows similar behavior at the end of March after several failed attempts to break above $73,500. Profit taking by some whales triggered a two-month correction that saw Bitcoin hit a low of $60,830 on May 1.
Is Bitcoin Bottoming at $82,500?
If historical trends hold, the Bitcoin price could bottom near $82,500. This is a standard 17% correction from all-time highs and far from a bear market signal. By comparison, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings showed little change during the correction from March 14 to May 16, with MicroStrategy making a single purchase of 24,400 BTC.
This time the scenery is very different. Spot ETF buying remains strong with the addition of institutional players that reflect MicroStrategy’s approach. Among these are Japan’s MetaPlanet, America’s Semler Scientific, and Marathon Digital, a global Bitcoin mining company. This coordinated activity suggests increased corporate adoption that could provide a solid level of support for the Bitcoin price.
It is unclear whether these companies will maintain the pace of Bitcoin acquisitions, but the fact that Microsoft shareholders are discussing a similar strategy further strengthens market confidence.
When whales and arbitrage desks anticipate a sharp price decline, hedging costs increase, pushing the put-to-call ratio above 6%. The key indicator here is the 25% delta skew, which typically ranges from -6% to +6% in neutral markets. A bias outside of this range indicates heightened fear or over-optimism.
relevant: Bitcoin’s $93,000 drop could be the ‘last flush’ before the plunge: Analyst
Bitcoin 1-month options 25% delta skew (put call) on Deribit. Source: Levitas
Data from the options market highlights this resilience. With put (sell) and call (buy) options now trading at similar premiums, the bullish sentiment observed between November 16 and November 26 has disappeared, indicating a shift toward neutral sentiment. However, on-chain metrics and derivatives show no signs of stress or a bear market, indicating an optimistic price outlook for Bitcoin.
This article is written for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.