Following a 10% price swing on January 20, Bitcoin (BTC) price has remained above $100,000 for six consecutive days and is worth $106,100 at the time of publication.
Data from Checkonchain, a Bitcoin on-chain analysis program, shows that 80% of short-term holders (STH) are back in profit range after BTC recovered above $100,000. STH supply loss fell to 65% before Bitcoin rebounded earlier this month.
Profit for short-term Bitcoin holders %. Source: X.com
When short-term Bitcoin holders make a profit, it is a good sign because they are less vulnerable to panic selling during profitable periods. However, Darkfost, a verified analyst at CryptoQuant, said that Short Holders’ Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) is turning negative, implying that STH is starting to sell BTC at a loss.
Bitcoin Short Holder (STH SOPR) chart. Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see from the chart, STH holders suffered long-term losses in 2024. It is important to note that while the lost STH supply may be high, the unrealized value will still remain if holders do not sell. The above data suggests that despite STH profitability increasing over the past week, there is some panic selling taking place among holders. Despite the concerns, Darkfost added an optimistic caveat to its analysis and said:
“When this indicator turns negative, it often highlights attractive long-term entry points.”
In fact, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr has confirmed that the increase in volatility is leading to “increasing coin movement” on both the buyer and seller sides.
Axel Adler Jr.’s Bitcoin Activity and Volatility Composite Index Source: X.com
As observed, the Volatility Composite Index, an indicator that measures changes in BTC price in response to market activity, reached its highest level in a month. With Bitcoin hitting an all-time high in the past 24 hours, Adler hinted at a narrative that “FOMO is in full swing.”
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Bitcoin’s range between $90,000 and $95,000 is a “critical zone.”
As the broader cryptocurrency market expects choppy price action in the coming days, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode has set $95,000-$90,000 as the “critical zone” for BTC.
Bitcoin realized loss chart. Source: Glassnode
As can be seen in the chart, this particular range has witnessed significant realized losses since November 2024, when sellers capitulated strongly and buyers jumped in. This means that as long as the BTC price remains above this range, BTC’s bullish structure remains solid.
Additionally, Mihir, a cryptocurrency educator, pointed out that despite potential price volatility in the future, key technical support allows traders to anticipate potential downside risks. Technical analysts highlighted $90,000-$80,000 as a “safe retracement” level.
Bitcoin support and resistance ranges based on realized prices. Source: CryptoQuant
According to data from CryptoQuant, the STH realized price is currently around $87,700, which would be technical support for BTC based on the average BTC price of each token traded on-chain.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.