Bitcoin (BTC) surged on April 22 to $ 91,000 and more than $ 91,000, and the upward movement matched gold to reach the new all -time high. Price profit reflects investors’ concerns about potential economic recession during the global trade tension.
Although the assistant is changing, does the data support more than $ 95,000 in bitcoin prices?
In the neutral market, the Bitcoin Futures Premium is generally between 5% and 10% and compensates for a longer settlement period. Currently, BTC has recognized $ 6,840 between April 20 and April 22, but the annual premium is 6%. Some analysts interpret this as a signal that Bitcoin has begun to separate it from the stock market.
Traders’ PTSD can appear in the $ 90K area of BTC.
Some of this skepticism between merchants comes from the repetitive inability of Bitcoin in early March. For example, Bitcoin tested $ 95,000 on March 3 and fell to $ 81,464 the next day. On January 20, this inconsistent achievement after the highest point of $ 109,346 contributed to the lack of conviction among strong investors, especially as gold continued to set the new all -time high for the same period.
Currently, BITCOIN is trading 16% from the record high, which is closely reflected in the S & P 500’s 14.5% decrease. This suggests that the era of excessive risk sensation may be behind us. Especially at the lowest point of less than $ 75,000, Bitcoin’s 32% strike was less serious than NVIDIA (NVDA), Amazon (Amzn), Facebook (META) and Tesla (TSLA).
On April 22, the US Treasury Secretary’s opinion contributed to the easing of investors. As reported by Bloomberg, Bessent described the continuous tariff conflict with China as “impossible”, which has increased the possibility of leaving. In contrast, US President Donald Trump visited social media and insisted that Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, is interfering with economic growth without lowering interest rates.
Bitcoin’s interests are contrasted and contrasted with investors’ government bonds.
Regardless of where the US is responsible for calm economic growth, the demand for short -term US treasures has increased, as proved by the yield of two years, as it has decreased from 4.04%to 3.81%a month ago. In essence, investors are lowering their yields in return for the recognized safety of government bonds. Compared to this background, Bitcoin’s 6.3% price increase is particularly noteworthy.
It is important to investigate the BTC option market to check whether such recent profits have affected the feelings of professional traders. If the trader is expected to modify, the PUT (SELL) option tends to be traded as a premium, so 25% DELTA SKEW Metric rises more than 6%. On the contrary, the feelings of the strong pushes the indicators to less than -6%.
Currently, the Bitcoin Options market reflects the recent limited passion to $ 91,000, and 25% DELTA SKEW indicators remain within -2%. According to the metrics, the last strong feeling occurred when Bitcoin was traded for $ 105,000 on January 30. Therefore, there is no clear evidence that large -scale investors or market manufacturers expect more than $ 95,000.
relevant: Institutional demand can exceed $ 200 million in BTC by 2025.
Despite the weak macroeconomic data, market participants expect a relatively strong one -quarter import season. According to FACTSET, the “magnificent 7” company is expected to achieve an increase of 14.8%in the first quarter of the previous year.
Bitcoin still has a reasonable opportunity to return more than $ 95,000, but many traders are waiting for further development in the US-China Trade War before they have further bet.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.