Main takeout:
Bitcoin tends to rally when lower leverage meets stronger retail sales and attractive federal reserve banks.
For three weeks, a separate Bitcoin rose from 50%to 84%.
The upcoming speeches of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can help Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin (BTC) price rally is often associated with data that surpasses investors’ inflation problems and expectations for economic growth, but there are rare signs of imminent rally. However, the combination of three independent events has been consistent with the surge of more than 50% of BTC prices.
Significant Bitcoin Rally is a convenient US Federal Reserve’s policy expectation, low encryption market leverage, and strong retail data occurs when supporting momentum. The last event of these three events has risen from $ 40,000 to $ 73,500 for seven weeks in early 2024.
Similar profits were recorded in early 2023 when Bitcoin was adjusted in early 2023 from $ 16,700 to $ 25,100 in early 2023. The third example dates back to July 2021 and ends with a 76%price increase.
Bitcoin increased 84% from January 25, 2024 to March 13, 2024.
After nearly $ 43,000 in December 2023, Bitcoin’s price was tested at $ 48,000 in early January 2024. The failure of the failure dropped sharply to $ 37,800 by the end of January until the late seven weeks. The important factor at this stage was a very low permanent futures funding rate of 4%every year.
The US retail sales data, which was announced on January 17, 2023, was an US retail sales data released on January 17, 2024, and it was more than 0.6% compared to the press conference on January 31, 2024 by Jerome Powell, the predicted prediction chairman, and without immediate interest rates. It also signed further financial position.
Bitcoin increased 50% from January 3, 2023 to February 20, 2023.
Prior to this rally, Bitcoin has been integrated to less than $ 18,000 for two months, minimizing the demand for long positions, as reflected by the almost permanent future funding rate.
This landscape changed when Binance’s financing rate soared to 50%within 4 days on January 3, 2023. This matched more powerful retail sales data than expected in January 2023, which increased by 3% a month to 1.9% agreement. In particular, Fed Chairman Powell proposed a more strict monetary policy to fight inflation during his speech on January 10, 2023 at Sveriges Riksbank.
Bitcoin 76% Rally: July 20, 2021 -September 7, 2021
Bitcoin recorded 76%from July 20, 2021 to September 7, 2021. The price of Bitcoin has fallen from $ 40,000 to less than $ 30,000 over the last month, which weakened its market sentiment. Suddenly, the annual Bitcoin funding rate increased from 0% to 37% in two weeks, while US retail sales data predicted the consensus by 0.4%, but the economists were surprised by an increase of 0.6%.
During this period, POWELL’s remarks at Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 27, 2021 showed a potential reduction in purchasing central bank assets, which was a movement to prevent inflation.
relevant: Ray Dalio says the global financial order is about the crisis of failure.
Bitcoin’s next potential up swing
The general thread that connects these important rally reduces expectations for the expansion federal preparation system and initially low demand for Bitcoin bulls. If these elements match strong retail data, traders tend to be cautious before the economic downturn, creating an ideal condition for running Bitcoin bull.
In the future, Fed Chair Powell will be speeches on June 18 in accordance with the central bank’s interest rate decision. The main dates will include Beige Book Release on July 16 and Jackson Hole Economic Symposium from August 21st. It is also important to monitor US retail sales data on June 17 and June 15.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.