Core:
Weak labor and consumer data are often prior to the Bitcoin rally, some analysts have expected future economic stimuli programs.
The opening of jobs decreased to 7.2 million in March, and 7.5 million forecasts and consumer trust reached the lowest level since January 2021.
If the past pattern is maintained, Bitcoin can be rally until mid -July and reach $ 140,000 by October 2025.
The macroeconomic conditions had a big impact on cryptocurrency prices for a long time. In general, Bitcoin (BTC) and ALTCOINS have a decrease in performance when investors are concerned that employment and consumer data are weakening.
According to the US Labor Department’s JOLTS Report, which was announced on April 29, the opening of jobs in March was the lowest level in four years. US employers posted 7.2 million vacancies in March than the 7.5 million economists expected in March. Meanwhile, US consumer trust fell on April 5 in a row and reached the lowest point since January 2021.
If the conditions deteriorate, the central bank is more likely to introduce economic stimuli measures, and the overall impact on the cryptocurrency market is uncertain. In general, additional liquidity encourages investment in risky assets such as Bitcoin because more capital flows into the economy.
Future expectations are more important than today’s weak economic data
It was between January and June 2024 that the United States finally experienced a decrease in job opening and weakening consumer trust. For the next three months, the price of Bitcoin moved from $ 53,000 to $ 66,000. Then, in mid -October, 60% rally began, and the BTC was carried out at $ 100,000 or more. The final result was positive, but this effect took more than 105 days to show in the cryptocurrency market.
These conditions may seem to be worried at first, but weak labor and consumer sentiment generally look like backward. Financial markets and companies make a decision based on expectations for future economic growth rather than past data. In addition, improved feelings among encryption investors tend to come if there is a confirmation of a better macroeconomic condition. This explains why the 105 -day delay is rare.
Prior to 2024, a similar situation occurred between January and June 2023, and job search market data and consumer confidence decreased. The next four months was difficult because the price of Bitcoin dropped from 18%to $ 25,000. By the end of October, the price took 115 days to recover to $ 30,500. But the next two months was very positive and BTC reached $ 43,900.
The last eight years of suffering from the labor market and consumer trust over the past eight years was between February 2020 and May 2020 shortly after the implementation of the Covid-199 Lockdowns between February and May 2020. This period showed that Bitcoin fell for less than $ 4,000 in March 13, 2020. As a result, a longer integration period was expected before investors regained their trust in the encryption market.
relevant: Bitcoin acts like a ‘value of value’ in the trump policy confusion: NYDIG
Can Bitcoin record $ 140,000 by October?
Looking back on the macroeconomic data, it did not have a significant impact on Bitcoin between May 2020 and September 2020, and the price increased from $ 8,900 to $ 10,600, an increase of 20%. But the next 60 days brought an impressive 85%rally to $ 19,700. Third, weak labor and consumer appraisal data seemed to come before the rally of Bitcoin prices.
The time between the lowest point of the economic situation and the rally of Bitcoin was between 105 and 130 days, but the results were clear in all three cases. Therefore, if the US jobs and consumer trust are improved in April 2025, the price of Bitcoin will begin to rise in mid -July. If history is repeated, this can mean at least $ 140,000 goals by October 2025, but to confirm this outlook requires more positive macroeconomic data.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.