Betters for predictive platforms are turning over the US economy in the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms predict that the US will record economic contraction in the first quarter of 2025 in the upcoming economic data release.
The United States has recorded positive growth every quarter since 2022, and the reversal of this trend can mean the beginning of the recession.
The pessimistic outlook shows the change of emotional emotions in the predicted market, which is expected to have a positive US growth report in the US. On April 29, the US growth estimates for US derivatives exchanges, KALSHI, plunged from about 0.5%to -0.4%within 24 hours.
Meanwhile, POLYMARKET BETTORS sets the probability of US economic contraction to about 70%in the first quarter. On April 28, they still had a favorable view.
The shift occurs just one day after the second largest trade partner in the United States, Canada, elected the Liberal Party Mark Carney as the prime minister. Carney has vowed to take a more attractive position in the ongoing trade war between Canada and the United States.
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The market will be held in line with the US Economic Analysis Bureau (April 30 reports), which issues the official measurement of the US Economic Analysis Bureau (GDP).
The report will provide the most clear view of the influence of US President Donald Trump’s controversial trade policy.
The predictive market works dynamically according to the expected results through a trading contract related to a specific event.
In 2024, the event contract was found to be reliable as much as a traditional poll, and predicted not only Trump’s election, but also his party’s House of Representatives and Senate.
Tariff confusion
On April 2, Trump announced plans to pay tariffs on US imports. The president has since suspended the launch of tariffs in certain countries, but the prospects of the World Trade War are still approaching.
The macroeconomic uncertainty has already weighed on US economic data.
In April, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manuel Index reported that the monthly survey of 250 US -based manufacturers (US -based manufacturers) reported that the activities have been most rapidly reduced since 2020.
Analysts said factories are manufacturing to influence Trump’s tariff plan, which can potentially increase the production cost of manufacturers.
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