Main takeout:
The Bitcoin Market Cycling Top is difficult time, but combining technology and behavior indicators can provide powerful signals.
MVRV-Z scores, PI cycles top indicators, trading volume trends, Puell Multiple and Exchange inflow accurately predict the top of the Bitcoin price cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) can access the last stage of the current market cycle. Dramatic final rally and rapid modifications, and eventually the bear market follows. For many people, this can be a peak for the last four years, and major players are preparing accordingly.
Since late 2024, the accumulation of Bitcoin whales has soared. According to GlassNode data, the number of addresses with more than 100 BTCs increased by 14%, reaching 18,200 people.
However, riding meetings is more difficult than appearance, and it is difficult to know the exit time. Temptations at higher prices are fueled to FOMO, leading investors to buy normal and faced painful solidarity or liquidation.
How can a trader and investor find the best before the market enters the recession?
Bitcoin cycle best marker
Some technologies and onChain indicators, such as MVRV (market value of realization) Z-score, PI cycle tower and trading volume trend, have historically reliable signaling when Bitcoin is closer to the highest point.
The MVRV-Z score compares the market value of Bitcoin with the realized value and adjusts volatility. High Z-score suggests that Bitcoin is quite overestimated compared to historical cost standards. When this indicator is historically high, it is likely that the decline in bitcoin prices will occur.
The PI cycle uses the moving average to track BTC price mechanics. If the 111-day moving average 111-SMA crosses more than twice the 350-day average (350-SMAX2), it sends an overheating signal. In other words, the market begins when the short -term trend catches the long -term trajectory.
Historically, all the previous bitcoin bull running ended with a surge in MVRV Z-Scores and ended with 111-SMA that crosses long-term trends.
In addition, if the trading volume decreases during the price increase, it can be a warning signal, and often sends a signal to inform the weakening momentum and the possibility of reversal. A balanced volume that registers the cumulative volume flow is a valuable metrics for tracking this process. If OBVs are divided in price behavior, it is often the initial reversal signal.
The second leg of 2021 Bull Run was a great example. While the BTC Price has a high high compared to $ 68,000 (compared to the maximum of $ 63,170), the trading volume has moved in the other direction and reduced from 710,000 BTC to 628,000 BTC. This suggests that there is a weak difference between the price and the volume, which suggests that the number of market participants in the market supports the rally.
Metric that gains profits
As the market cycle approaches, long -term holders and Bitcoin miners often begin to promote profits. The valuable metrics that can track it are Puell multiple and exchange flow.
Puell multiple indicators look at the profits of miners compared to the 365 -day average. According to high reading, miners can actively start selling and are often found near the market tower.
Since investors prepare to sell coins, large inflows to exchange are generally signs of distribution.
Individually, these indicators can indicate a variety of changes in market trends. Combined often matches the cycle tower.
relevant: Sorry Bear -Bitcoin Analysis $ 107K BTC PRICE DOUBLE TOP.
15% rules
Historical price activities can also be useful. Crypto Market analyst Cole Garner shared the exit playbook according to the whale’s actions. His roadmap includes three stages.
euphoria. Bitcoin moves vertically for several weeks, with more than $ 10,000 candles every day.
encouragement. Bitcoin experiences the sharpest corrections of the bull. The curved parabolic trend line that supports the rally is broken. It is a clear sign that the top will be possible. Meanwhile, Altcoins and MEME tokens can be pumped a little longer.
Snack. Measure 15%, which is lower than the best ever of Bitcoin. That is the sales area. Order of major exchange often shows the walls of sales around this level.
According to Garner, 15% (or 16%) rules work not only in encryption but also in traditional markets.
Single indicators cannot find exactly the exact moments from the changing macro environment. But when multiple signals are aligned, it becomes difficult to ignore. The last leg of the Bitcoin Bull market is thrilled, but knowing the time when music can stop is the key to fixing profits.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.