Main takeout:
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflow and low leverage suggest that the BTC rally may grow.
The US Federal Reserve Bank Liquidity and weak bond sales support Bitcoin pushes over $ 110,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) could not maintain strength after reaching a new all -time high of $ 109,827 on May 21, which caused merchants to question whether the derivatives led the rally. From a wide range of perspectives, Bitcoin Future’s $ 77 billion played an important role. However, if you look closely at the data, you will see more positive prospects for further prices.
The annual Bitcoin futures premium of 7%is now within 5%to 10%neutral range, which has been common for the last two weeks. This indicator can easily exceed 30%during the strong optimism period, so the current level is relatively low. At the same time, if there is no excessive leverage, concerns about meetings leaded by derivatives will be reduced.
Balanced Order and Spot Bitcoin ETF inflow points refer to the spot -centered rally.
On January 20, the previous Bitcoin $ 109,346 was the highest level ever, and the annual future premium reached 15%, showing a much higher level of use that affects the price. Therefore, the Bitcoin derivatives market looks healthier and suggests strong demand in the spot market.
During the bull in January, Bitcoin’s Coinbase price was traded as a premium compared to other exchanges. This so -called coinbase premium does not exist now. In other words, it means that the purchase pressure spreads more evenly.
Excessive purchasing pressure on single exchange is not necessarily weak, but it may be easier to surge in non -sustainable prices when liquidity is low. This data supports the idea that the derivatives market is not a major driver of the recent price hike.
Moreover, in order to discover the Bitcoin exchange trading funds (ETF) in the United States between May 15 and May 20, the net influx reached $ 13.7 billion is the main force of the meeting, not a derivative trader.
Despite the lack of conviction of Bitcoin futures, some indicators are more upset. Between May 18 and May 21, the forced liquidation of the weak BTC futures position is relatively low at $ 170 million, which has been strengthened. On the other hand, on May 9, $ 104,000, the rally triggered $ 555 million for three days.
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On May 21, the Bitcoin option market has slightly increased demand for the PUT (SELL) options, but there was nothing unusual. For comparison, Deribit’s foot type ratio dropped 0.4 times during the bull run before January 20, and the reliability of the volume of the Call (purchase) option was lowered.
Bitcoin’s upward motion may have been limited as macroeconomic factors, especially tariff wars. Nevertheless, the likelihood of reaching more than $ 110,000 is based on the weak position of the US Federal Reserve Bank. Injecting liquidity can alleviate the economic downturn, but reduces the attractiveness of government bonds that prefer risky assets such as Bitcoin.
This article is for general information purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.