Main takeout:
A unique divergence occurred when long -term bitcoin holders benefited, and the overall supply of cohort continues to increase.
Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen to the 10th percentile in 10 years, and the price is the lowest in 10 years, despite the price of a record high.
The price of BTC (Bitcoin) is a few percent of the highest level of $ 111,800, and the data from Onchain Analytics provider Glassnode shows the “unique mechanics of the migration” as long -term holders continue to dominate the asset distribution in the second half of the bull market. This action is rapidly out of the previous cycle.
This data is a long -term holder (LTH), which has a BTC for more than 155 days, and has a significant profit, and net realization/loss reached $ 990 million a day. Nevertheless, the total supply of LTHS is still increasing. This is unprecedented at this stage of the rally, which tends to decrease the LTH support due to a wide range of profits.
This epidemiology means that much more coins are mature in long -term status while some long -term investors are selling. This report is called “unique duality” in the market structure, where sales pressure is more important because of continuous accumulation. These changes in the behavior of the holder are mainly due to the long -term custody of institutional investors and the US branch Bitcoin ETF.
Additional evidence of this late cycle behavior is now a profit/loss ratio that is currently realized at 9.4, indicating that most long -term coins have gained significant benefits. Historically, such a level coincides with market happiness and often lasts for months, but often prioritizes the region or the top of the cycle.
Related: Michael Saylor rejected Crypto Winter Fears and Bitcoin reached $ 1 million.
Bitcoin volatility is enhanced and the price detection can be instructed.
Bitcoin’s current volatile profile presents paradox. On the other hand, the supply density that measures how close the ownership of Bitcoin is at the current price has increased in recent weeks. This is a signal that some investors have purchased around $ 105,000- $ 110,000. In this strict cluster environment, small price fluctuations can cause large emotional or trading response to increase the risk of sudden volatility.
On the other hand, the opposite signal comes from the derivatives market. AT-THE-MONEY ACMENTIED VOLATILITY (ATM IV), a gauge of future price fluctuations derived from the Bitcoin option price, will fall over all periods. This suggests that merchants will soon store brace for significant price dislocations.
Similarly, according to Ecoinometric’s data, Bitcoin’s weekly volatility has now fallen to the 10th percentile, which is lower than 90%over the last few weeks, and Bitcoin has set a new all -time high and has strongly set up in May. It can be seen that Bitcoin can enter a new regime and reflects powerful performance without irregular price swing.,,, This is an attractive setting for institutional investors who focus on risk adjustment revenue.
The market looks stable but firmly hurt when the BTC price is at the top of the dense supply cluster and institutional inflow fixed demand. If new demand gains profits, Bitcoin can burst through the upper limit of volatility. But when the emotions are cracked, the fullback can be clearer than expected.
Related: How high can Bitcoin prices go?
This article does not include investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading measures include risks, and the reader must do his own research when making a decision.