Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium flipped to red as BTC price fell below $104,000.
Bitcoin’s RSI hit its lowest point since April, hinting at a potential bottom.
The 200-day EMA support remained important as BTC risks capitulating in the near term.
Bitcoin (BTC) continued its recent decline on Friday, falling to $103,500 and sparking a noticeable shift in on-chain market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the difference in BTC prices between Coinbase and other exchanges, has flipped to red on the hourly chart for the first time in weeks.
Earlier this week, BTC attempted to find support around $110,000, driven by steady spot demand from US investors. Coinbase premium soared to 0.18, the highest since March 2024.
But near-term confidence faded on Thursday as prices failed to stay above $110,000. While the hourly premium has turned negative, the daily figure remains slightly positive, indicating that long-term buy support in the US is currently under pressure, if not completely gone.
Adding to the bearish pressure, Bitcoin taker selling volume has surged to over $4 billion, signaling a surge in market sell orders. This move coincides with BTC’s rejection near $112,370, a key level with short-term holder (STH) realized prices currently acting as resistance.
Historically, this level has represented the average cost basis for recent buyers, meaning continued rejection below this level could accelerate a near-term capitulation to $100,000.
Related: Bitcoin Holds $105,000 as U.S. Bank Stocks Recover, Sentiment Rises as Trump Truce
Bitcoin reflects the March-April bottom structure.
BTC’s current price action is very similar to the March-April bottom range, with the liquidity built over the 30 days being eliminated in a sharp intraday rally before a gradual recovery begins. The pattern suggested that BTC could retest the $100,000 range without necessarily breaking the broader bullish structure as long as it does not fall below that level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also fell to a low matching the April low of 34, after which BTC began to recover on the charts.
The main technical signal to watch is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which BTC has held for nearly six months. In the previous cycle, this trend maintained from October 2024 to March 2024, with a brief decline during consolidation. This time the trend line has been maintained from April to October 2025 and the price is likely to lose the trend line in the coming days.
If BTC continues to follow the previous fractal, the market could enter a consolidation phase that could last several weeks. In the first quarter, the recovery phase extended by almost 45 to 55 days, reaching a true bottom only at the end of April. Applying the same timeline suggests a gradual recovery may not materialize until late November or early December.
Cryptocurrency trader Dentoshi agrees with this view, saying:
“$BTC has consistently bottomed near the 3-day 100 EMA during this bull market, but it has taken 45 to 96 days to do so.”
Related: Bitcoin’s ‘bull market is over,’ traders say, warning of 50% plunge in BTC price
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.