Net purchases of Bitcoin by institutional investors fell below the daily issuance rate (mining supply) for the first time in seven months. According to cryptocurrency investment analysts, this signals a worrying change in market dynamics.
On Monday, Capriole Investments principal Charles Edwards shared some stark data about his company. X Accessoriesaunt. Expressing his immediate concerns, Edwards said, “I’m not lying. This has been the main indicator that has kept me bullish over the past few months while every other asset has outperformed Bitcoin. It’s not good.”
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Bullish indicator turns bearish
Edwards presented a chart showing the price of Bitcoin along with indicators of buying/selling pressure from major institutions. These indicators track three types of institutional activity: miners (red), spot ETFs and similar institutional purchases (light green), and BTC Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) corporate activity (orange).
Analysis shows that demand is decreasing at a staggered rate. BTC DAT corporate buying declined significantly for the first time since around August 14th. Initially, subsequent inflows from spot ETFs compensated for this reduced corporate pressure, maintaining overall institutional demand.
but, Spot ETF purchases also began to decline sharply following the market crash on October 10th. According to the current scenario Comprehensive net institutional buying, which combines all major institutional flows, has now fallen below the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin.
The histogram at the bottom of the Edwards chart, which tracks institutional pressure (green for buying, red for selling), is transitioning from green to red.
Heavy bags and decreased interest
Cautioning that these short-term trends do not determine long-term direction, Edwards highlighted immediate structural weaknesses. “Trends may change tomorrow, next week or two years from now, but right now we have 188 financial firms carrying a heavy bag with no business model and institutional buyers who are far less interested than before,” he said.
Separately, on-chain data platform Lookonchain reported increased selling movement among individual whale investors outside of institutions. In a post on Monday, the company noted that a major whale, “BitcoinOG (1011short),” had deposited about 13,000 BTC ($1.48 billion) since October 1 to exchanges including Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid.
Additionally, prominent Bitcoin whale ‘Owen Gunden’ was confirmed to have transferred 3,265 BTC ($364.5 million) to the Kraken exchange since October 21. Large transfers to centralized exchanges typically occur in advance of major liquidation events, pending final cash-out confirmation.