BlackRock’s 2026 Thematic Outlook puts Ethereum at the center of the tokenization thesis and asks whether the network can serve as a “toll road.”
“More than 65% of tokenized assets are on Ethereum,” BlackRock said.
The frame pushes Ethereum into an infrastructure role rather than a directional call to ETH. The “toll road” model depends on where issuance, settlement, and fee payments occur as real assets and tokenized cash move on-chain.
Citing Coin Metrics and Allium via the Visa Onchain Analytics dashboard, BlackRock noted that stablecoin trading volume has been adjusted to “eliminate inorganic activity (e.g. bots).”
These caveats narrow the metrics investors can rely on when converting tokenized “activity” into economic throughput.
Ethereum’s market share is a moving target
Market research from the end of January shows why the “65%+” figure should be considered a point in time.
Ethereum’s tokenized RWA market share is 59.84%, with a total value of approximately $12.8 billion as of January 22 search, according to a directory view of RWA.xyz.
RWA.xyz’s network view also shows Ethereum leading in terms of value, with a total value (excluding stablecoins) of $13,433,002,447, with table timestamps around January 21st.
The spread between these numbers and BlackRock’s January 5 numbers leaves room for stock price volatility.
This drift can occur as issuance expands to different chains and reporting periods change.
| data point | Ethereum Value/Share | Timestamp of source | source |
|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Tokenization Slide Snapshot | “65%+” of Ethereum tokenized assets | As of January 5, 2026 | BlackRock PDF (17 pages) |
| RWA.xyz Directory Overview | Total value $12.8 billion, market share 59.84% | Retrieved January 22, 2026 | RWA.xyz directory |
| RWA.xyz network table | $13,433,002,447 (excluding stablecoins) | The table shows pack history “as of” January 22, 2026, and as of January 21, 2026. | RWA.xyz network |
For ETH holders, the forward-looking question is less about whether institutions tokenize their assets and more about whether tokenization routes fee payment settlements through ETH holdings.
BlackRock’s thesis points towards Ethereum as the base layer for tokenized assets. However, the base layer role may be diluted if execution turns into a rollup or if tokenized funds are spread across multiple L1s without users touching their ETH.
Rollups and fee paths complicate the “toll road” topic.
L2BEAT’s rollup summary shows a large pool of value already “guaranteed” through the leading Ethereum rollup.
Arbitrum One is worth $17.52 billion, Base is $12.94 billion, and OP Mainnet is $2.33 billion, each marked as Stage 1.
This architecture can maintain Ethereum’s payment role while moving where users pay their daily fees.
Rollup execution economics and fee assets vary by design, and even if Ethereum remains the default security layer, the differences are important for fee capture.
Tokenized cash could become a key throughput driver for tokenized portfolios, with clearer scenario math provided.
Citi’s stablecoin report models 2030 issuance at $1.9 trillion in the base case and $4 trillion in the bullish case.
Combining these balances with a 50x velocity assumption modeled trading activity of approximately $100 trillion and $200 trillion, respectively.
The mechanical implication is that even small changes in market share of a payment network can be significant once activity scales to that level.
When investors attempt to infer fee generation from raw on-chain flows, measurement methods become key.
Stablecoin “noise”, multi-chain products and single ledger debate
Visa claimed that stablecoin transfer volumes contained “noise.”
For example, Visa said that after removing weapons activity, stablecoin trading volume fell from $3.9 trillion to $817.5 billion over the past 30 days.
BlackRock’s tokenization slide mentions the same concept as stripping bots and ties that description to a narrower definition of economic use.
If a “toll road” seeks to monetize payments, the investable variable is not the number of headline transfers but organic payment demand that cannot be cheaply replicated elsewhere.
Multi-chain deployments are already present in institutional product designs, which complicates the linear “tokenization equals ETH demand” argument.
BlackRock’s tokenized fund BUIDL is available on seven blockchains that support cross-chain interoperability through Wormhole.
This supports a survival path for non-Ethereum chains as a distribution and venue-specific utility layer, even if Ethereum maintains the lead in issuance value or payment reliability.
Another part of the debate focused on whether institutional tokenization would end up on a single common ledger.
The topic circulated during Davos week. Through posts on social media Remarks by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.
World Economic Forum data released this month supports a wide range of claims about the benefits of tokenization, including on the topic of splitting and faster payments.
However, the WEF falls short of literally validating the “single blockchain” language in its 2026 Digital Asset Forecast and Tokenization Explainer video.
For Ethereum’s decentralization thesis, an investable tension is whether the base layer can remain neutral as tokenization is tied to large issuers and regulated venues.
The “transparency” claim depends on credible resistance to unilateral change and payment finality inherited by the lower classes.
Today, L2BEAT’s stage framework and value assurance data demonstrate the expansion of rollups under Ethereum’s security umbrella, while BUIDL’s multi-chain rollouts show major issuers reducing platform concentration risk.
BlackRock’s “toll road” slide resulted in over 65% market share.
The near-term battleground appears to be sharing, settlement location and organic usage measurement across the RWA sector, according to the RWA dashboard and multi-chain product launch in late January.
The same dynamic will likely shape how investors interpret the growth of tokenized Treasury bonds and other on-chain issuance categories.