Bitcoin appears to be nearing a potential technical turning point as analyst John Bollinger pointed to a “W” shaped double bottom pattern forming on the daily chart. In a new post on
Technical discussions are ongoing, with evidence that institutional demand may cautiously reemerge. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for the first time in 10 days, according to data shared by market participants, with traders noting that BTC’s ability to hold near $60,000 despite broader outflows could indicate selling pressure has been absorbed.
Key Takeaways
- John Bollinger highlighted the daily “W” double bottom structure in BTC/USD, presenting it as a candidate to break the dominant downtrend.
- Bollinger described the pattern as a “perfect fractal,” with a smaller “w” shape near the previous low and a corresponding “m” at the bounce peak.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the first time in 10 days, signaling an easing of pressure on the ETF channel.
- Traders said BTC’s stability around the ~$60,000 region could be critical if the price continues to hold through next week despite previous ETF outflows.
Bollinger’s “Perfect Fractal” Double Bottom Theory
Bollinger, known for creating the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, used X to examine the current BTC/USD structure. He pointed to a “W” shaped reversal pattern, which typically involves a bounce between two swing lows, and argued that such a pattern becomes bullish once the price breaks out of the resistance level created during the bounce.
In his post, Bollinger reinforced his view that a downtrend is dominant, noting that the previous bullish pattern has been broken. Next, he asked whether the current ‘W’ could be the one to ‘break’ the trend.
Bollinger also shared a chart consistent with the lower Bollinger Band setting on the daily timeframe. Emphasizing the fractal nature of the structure, he said smaller “w” shapes appear at the lowest points and smaller “m” shapes appear near the peaks of the bounce. He also mentioned a similar “W” on the weekly chart, suggesting that this idea is not limited to the daily time frame.
The real question for traders is what counts as confirmation. In terms of the classic pattern, a bullish outcome would depend on BTC breaking the rejection level between the two lows. Until then, the pattern remains a hypothesis rather than a proven reversal.
Why the ETF channel is attracting attention
While Bollinger’s analysis is technical, its focus on ETFs reflects how institutional flows are often used as a real-time indicator of demand. The U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund recorded net inflows for the first time in 10 days on Friday, according to market participant X.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said the move was meaningful in gauging whether ETF-related pressures are easing. In his summary, Adler Jr. said that while Bitcoin may be in the latter stages of its bear cycle, the ETF sector has signaled for the first time that the pressure has eased.
Another trader, Daan Crypto Trades, warned that the reported inflows of $220 million were “not massive.” Nonetheless, he suggested, context was important. BTC held roughly in the $60,000 region despite numerous outflows. In his view, if prices continue to bounce into next week, the region becomes more relevant because it means more volume “absorption” has occurred.
This is an important difference. During a bearish phase, inflows may be sporadic and do not necessarily change the broader trend. Impacts on the market tend to be more evident when prices hold and demand persists rather than when they appear temporarily.
Signs and expectations of a macro bottom
Despite the renewed interest in ETF flows, the broader market narrative still points to uncertainty about when the macro bottom will arrive. Previous reports cited in the same discussion noted that several price indicators were flashing signals not seen since the 2022 bear market. However, many participants believe the next macro bottom is still a long way off, with timing expectations pointing to the third quarter or later.
Bollinger’s framing fits the broader tension between “early signals” and “final bottoms.” If the W-shaped reversal plays out as expected, it means momentum could shift more quickly than the macro timetable suggests. However, without confirmation (especially if there is a break above the pattern’s rejection level), the setup may fail or only trigger a temporary bounce within a longer downtrend.
From an investor perspective, this makes the upcoming price action particularly important. If BTC can maintain near the recovery levels mentioned in the ETF discussion and then follow a breakout, the technical pattern could be consistent with improving demand. If not, it may reinforce the view among market participants that we have not yet reached a stage where bearish pressure has completely dissipated.
what to see next
The next steps will depend on whether BTC can translate ETF inflows and stability near $60,000 into sustained upside, especially through key resistance levels implied by Bollinger’s “W” structure. Readers should watch for actual confirmation of the pattern rather than relying solely on signal improvement, and track whether institutional demand remains supportive following the first inflows in 10 days.