One analyst explained how the current Bitcoin surge appears to have reached the mid-completion mark if this indicator is anything to go by.
Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator Suggests BTC Rally Is Only Half Complete
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VWAP, as its full form suggests, is an indicator that calculates the average price of a cryptocurrency based on the price movements during the day, as well as the volume traded at that price.
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This volume is typically measured using spot volume data provided by centralized exchanges. However, in the case of Bitcoin, the blockchain is anyone-browseable, so on-chain volume is used to calculate VWAP instead.
The actual indicator of interest here, the VWAP oscillator, takes the ratio between the cryptocurrency spot price and VWAP and displays it as an oscillator around 0.
Earlier this month, Woo pointed out how the Bitcoin VWAP oscillator is forming a bullish differential for the asset.
As can be seen on the chart, the Bitcoin VWAP oscillator formed a clear bottom at the time and then rose inside negative territory. At the same time, cryptocurrency prices were actually declining.
In the past, this setup has proven to be bullish for the coin and the resulting bullish momentum usually continues until the VWAP oscillator reaches positive territory. As such, the analyst pointed out that there was a lot of room for the coin to move at the time.
Since then, the price has experienced a recovery bounce, potentially suggesting that a bullish divergence could pay off. As Woo pointed out, after this run the indicator returned to the neutral mark.
Based on the fact that past highs have occurred after indicator peaks in positive territory, and the size of these peaks in general, the analyst concluded that “this Bitcoin move is now at the halfway point.”
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Here’s what the analyst says about how the situation could develop next:
Consolidation below the all-time high should take place for a while, and then see if a second leg provides breakout speed to new highs that will open the floodgates.
Woo also shared “red flags” for Bitcoin, which show where the asset stands when looking at the bigger picture.
BTC may be in that part of the cycle where risk begins to rise as the price reacts violently to capital inflows. “This is where most of the quick profits are made,” says the analyst.
BTC price
Bitcoin recovered above $71,000 earlier in the day, but the asset appears to have been on a downward trend since then, as it is now back below $70,000.
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, woocharts.com, charts from TradingView.com