Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin futures demand has hit its lowest level since 2024, indicating many institutional traders are taking caution.
Despite low confidence among bulls, high CME open interest suggests that major institutions have not left the market.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is up 10% since retesting $63,000 on Saturday, offering a glimpse of hope for strength as stock markets move in different directions amid rising tensions in the Middle East. However, demand for Bitcoin futures is declining and open interest has reached its lowest level since 2024. This trend has made traders fearful of institutional investors leaving the market.
Bitcoin futures open interest on major exchanges hit $32 billion on Sunday, down 20% from a month ago. Even measured in Bitcoin terms to adjust for recent price declines, BTC futures demand is currently at 491,300 BTC, the lowest level since August 2024. Part of this decline can be explained by an unexpected forced liquidation of the bull market.
Demand for leveraged bullish positions has all but disappeared since hitting an all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.
The annual premium (base rate) for Bitcoin monthly futures contracts fell to its lowest level in a year at 2%. Under neutral conditions, the metric should range between 5% and 10% to compensate for longer payment periods. Even more worrying is the fact that interest rates have not maintained their strong levels over the past 12 months, a period that includes the 50% rally between April and May 2025.
Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold and stock markets has likely diverted investor attention away from the cryptocurrency market. Nonetheless, given that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade on average more than $3 billion a day, it would be a stretch to claim that institutional investors have left the market. ETF holders include some of the world’s largest mutual and pension fund managers.
Additionally, publicly traded companies including Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US) hold over $79 billion in Bitcoin on-chain. Countries like Bhutan, El Salvador, and the United Arab Emirates have also added Bitcoin exposure. It could be argued that there is still a long way to go in terms of institutional adoption, but that is not the case at the moment.
Bitcoin Derivatives Show Resilience As Bulls Hesitate
The Bitcoin options market confirms that derivatives continue to perform as expected, despite repeated failures to recover the $72,000 level.
Bitcoin put-to-call options premiums hovered near 0.7 on Monday. This shows that the demand for put (sell) options is lower than for call (buy) options. Friday’s brief surge in demand for bearish strategies did not last. Essentially, the options market has shown no signs of serious trouble or sustained stress over the past few months.
relevant: Bitcoin holders show ‘zero panic’ as BTC surpasses $70,000 amid Middle East tensions.
Derivatives data also shows a lack of confidence among bulls, especially since Bitcoin is trading 45% below its all-time high. However, there is no evidence that institutional players have left the market. CME’s $7.5 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest is a clear sign of institutional activity. Despite selling pressure, all bid (sell) orders must be matched by buy (buy) orders, which maintains market balance.
Eventually, as more buyers returned, fear and uncertainty dissipated and the downward trend ended. It is unclear whether $60,000 is the absolute bottom of this market cycle, but Bitcoin has once again shown itself to be a safe asset with a fixed supply. The $1.4 trillion cryptocurrency market has proven its strength and shows no signs of failing.
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