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At PolyMarket, the probability of Ethereum spot ETF approval at the end of May plummets to 28%.

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At PolyMarket, the probability of Ethereum spot ETF approval at the end of May plummets to 28%.
Market • March 15, 2024, 2:28 PM EDT

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Currently, the Polymarket prediction market estimates that there is a 28% chance that a spot ether ETF will be approved by the end of May. This is a significant decrease from the 74% probability reported by PolyMarket on January 10th, when a spot Bitcoin ETF was approved.

After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, attention has focused on whether the agency could approve a spot Ether ETF next. So far, asset managers including BlackRock and Fidelity have submitted applications.

By May, the odds of a spot Ether ETF being approved had fallen further to 23%. Image: Polymarket.

SEC delays decision on spot ether ETF

But earlier this month, the SEC postponed a decision on BlackRock and Fidelity’s application for an ether ETF, a sign that the viability of such a financial product may be further away than initially thought.

“SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s limited authority over spot Bitcoin ETFs gives the agency more room to reject applications for non-Bitcoin ETFs in the future. We believe this is a possibility and we are confident that I’m of the opinion that we don’t want ‘s legacy to be that of the SEC Chairman. Who has done the most to validate the cryptocurrency asset class by approving multiple ETFs?” a Ryze Labs analyst said in an email to The Block.

The potential approval of a spot ether ETF faced more hurdles this week. In a letter dated March 11, two Democratic U.S. senators urged SEC Chairman Gensler not to proceed with approving future cryptocurrency products following the regulator’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January.

That letter Published on X.com March 14th. sense. California’s Laphonza Butler and Rhode Island’s Jack Reed said the SEC should limit future applications of cryptocurrency ETFs, arguing that other cryptocurrencies lack “the trading volume or integrity to support relevant ETPs.” The point was emphasized.

Bloomberg analysts lower odds of spot Ether ETF approval

Earlier this week, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas lowered his expectations for a spot Ethereum ETF approval to 30% from 70% in January. “We have a 30% chance,” Balchunas told The Block.

In January, Balchunas said there was a 70% chance it would be approved by May, while his colleague James Seyffart gave an estimate of 60-65%. “this Ethereum ETH

-3.52%
The ETF cycle feels like the opposite of b.Itcoin Current ETF approval odds. “The more we see/hear (and the less we see/hear), the less optimistic I become.” Seifart of X. “We’re about 73 days away from the deadline and there really seems to be little to no movement.”


Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet delivering news, research and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor in The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the cryptocurrency space. Cryptocurrency exchange Bitget is an anchor LP of Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to provide objective, impactful and timely information about the cryptocurrency industry. Below are our current financial disclosures.

© 2023 The Block. All rights reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not provided or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice.

About the author

Brian McGleenon is The Block’s UK markets reporter. He has worked as a financial journalist and producer for several news outlets such as Fuji Television, The Independent, Yahoo Finance, The Evening Standard and The Daily Express over the years. Brian is also a screenwriter and producer with one feature film and one in development at Northern Ireland Screen. In addition to web3 and cryptocurrency development, he is also interested in geopolitics, environmental issues, artificial intelligence, and longevity studies. Contact us via email (email protected).

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