As considerations grow deeper into how AI will transform the global economy, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein argue that cryptocurrency micropayments are needed to avoid financial bottlenecks in emerging industries.
The current global financial system is built on a network of interconnected jurisdictions, with companies like SWIFT for interbank transfers and Mastercard and Visa for cross-border transactions. However, access to this system requires individuals and businesses to verify their identity in order to obtain a bank account or credit card. This presents an obvious challenge for how automated AI can participate without the necessary identity documentation.
AI agents could use bank accounts or credit cards approved by humans or corporations, but this would limit the AI economy to human-owned, certified AI agents, limiting the potential for a fully autonomous AI financial system and creating an economy closer to a federal system, Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note to clients Friday.
The real bottleneck of the AI-financial economy is the current inability of the financial system to efficiently handle micropayments, Chhugani argued. AI agents may need to make very small, frictionless payments, such as streaming money to consume data or content. However, the complexity of the technology and the high transaction costs of existing systems make them uneconomical. To support the demands of the AI economy, the financial system must evolve to enable seamless, low-cost micropayments that match the consumption patterns of AI agents, the analyst said. This is where cryptocurrencies come in.
According to Chhugani, machine-to-machine payments require identity verification, permissionless cross-border micropayments, instant settlements and minimal costs, which are consistent with AI consumption patterns. Cryptocurrencies can address these needs by providing global permissionless digital payments and enabling microtransactions that can be settled almost instantly between machines, but they still require funding.
AI agents that can’t open bank accounts can instead use crypto wallets linked to a common ledger to process payments up to 16 decimal places. Zero-knowledge proofs can also link AI agent identities to human or business owners, and advances in blockchain scaling through layer 2 and parallelization are reducing transaction costs and making micropayments increasingly feasible, Chhugani said.
Bitcoin vs Stablecoins
Bernstein analysts highlighted the convergence of cryptocurrencies and AI that is already underway at the Bitcoin mining infrastructure layer, as mining companies with access to multi-gigawatt power are increasingly attractive partners for AI data center operators. One such example is Core Scientific’s 12-year, $3.5 billion contract with AI hyperscaler CoreWeave.
Chhugani said it will be interesting to see if there are miners who leverage layer 2 payment technology on Bitcoin via the Lightning Network, arguing that there is a bigger opportunity in stablecoins for the permissionless AI economy.
Stablecoins have a circulating supply of over $176 billion, according to The Block’s data dashboard, and over $7.5 trillion in annual settlement value, according to Bernstein. Stablecoins have already found success facilitating cryptocurrency trading pairs, global cross-border payments, and making it easier for users to use a digital form of the dollar in regions with weak fiat currencies, such as Latin America.
However, stablecoins have struggled to gain traction in e-commerce and point-of-sale payments, which creates an opportunity for AI agents to build new commercial economies, Chhugani noted. This gives stablecoins an opportunity to “become relevant again in this space” through innovation rather than trying to disrupt well-functioning incumbent payment systems, he said.
According to Chhugani, integrating cryptocurrency wallets into large-scale language models could be a good starting point, allowing AI agents to process users’ financial transactions, recommend trips, finalize reservations, or even create content and receive payments in digital dollars, all through simple, natural language commands.
“Cryptocurrencies have a real opportunity to capture a share of the AI payment pool by providing AI agents with greater programmability and financial autonomy,” the analyst concluded.
Gautam Addani holds long positions in various cryptocurrencies.
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