Bitcoin (BTC) saw volatility on Wall Street on October 4 as U.S. employment data significantly beat expectations.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin joins U.S. stocks as non-farm wages rise
The price of BTC on Bitstamp is close to $62,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
On this day, BTC/USD was up about 2% on significantly higher-than-expected US non-farm payrolls figures for September, at 254,000 vs. 147,000, respectively.
U.S. stocks also responded positively, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index rising.
“The obvious answer here is that risk appetite is incredibly strong,” wrote trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, as part of various responses to X.
“For the first time in years, markets are recognizing all news as good news.”
Nonetheless, Kobeissi said headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due Oct. 10 should support the risk narrative and lead markets to believe the Fed can achieve a “soft landing” on inflation. I warned you.
As a result, markets are starting to price in the overwhelming odds that the Fed will cut rates in November to be smaller than last month’s surprising 0.5% move.
“According to the report, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has soared to 93%. “Before the report came out, the market was giving us almost a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut next month,” Kobeissi said, citing data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“So how can this be bullish if the so-called ‘Fed pivot’ is already priced in?”
Fed target interest rate probability. Source: CME Group
Liquidity demand due to BTC price surge attack
As seen by monitoring resource CoinGlass, Bitcoin itself cleared its liquidity request line at $61,830 amid reaction to the employment data.
relevant: Bitcoin analysis confirms BTC price rise on Coinbase Premium Golden Cross.
BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: Coinglass
Analyzing the situation on the order book, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades suggested that the BTC price may attempt to increase liquidity, totaling $300 million.
“A large cluster of sell orders is located around the $62.5K price area. It will be interesting to see if the price today tries to fill it,” he told X followers.
BTC/USDT order book data. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
At the same time, fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital suggested that despite recent weakness, BTC price action is conducive to continued strength.
“Now we have a perfect retest right there,” he said alongside a weekly chart showing BTC/USD respecting a descending channel.
“Bitcoin successfully retested the downtrend (light blue) as support.”
BTC/USD 1 week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.