Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hit all-time highs against the S&P 500, gold and other indices. But achieving this is “a matter of if, not when.”
Caleb Franzen, founder of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, predicted the next BTC price outperformance in a post on X on November 15.
Bitcoin macro breakout is not yet a reality
Bitcoin may have hit $93,500 in the fourth quarter and is up nearly 50%, but compared to many macro assets, a BTC price breakout has yet to occur.
Franzen points out that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices are still keeping up with Bitcoin. This is also true for the NYSE FANG+ tech index and gold.
“It’s just a matter of when, not if,” he predicted.
BTC vs S&P500, Gold. Source: Caleb Franzen/X
For US stocks, a key moment in Bitcoin history came in early 2021 before BTC/USD reached an all-time high of $69,000. This figure has held for over two years.
While dollar records have since continued to fall, Bitcoin is still trying to hit new all-time highs across the macro asset spectrum.
Last week, Cointelegraph reported that the market was gaining ground over gold, which had a months-long head start on reaching a new all-time high in dollar terms.
At the time, Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, predicted a “rapid price correction” for BTC/USD following the outbreak.
Edwards then shared a long-term chart of gold’s own breakout in the 2000s, after spending two decades below its previous high in 1980. He suggested that BTC/USD could now do the same.
XAU/USD vs. BTC/USD. Source: Charles Edwards/X
BTC price warns of “at least” $72,000.
In a dramatic alternative, famous but increasingly infamous Bitcoin traders are now hinting that a collapse is imminent across risk assets.
relevant: If bulls hold key levels, Bitcoin price could reach $100,000 by Thanksgiving.
On November 15th, Crypto’s Il Capo returned to his Telegram channel with a photo showing that he predicted a black swan event was coming.
There was no comment, but the post quickly began to spread on social media, with users recalling Il Capo’s $12,000 BTC price target for Crypto, among other things.
As Cointelegraph reported, a bearish outlook for Bitcoin continues to surface, with fellow trader Credible Crypto recently calling for sub-$50,000 for the pair.
In a recent X analysis, Credible Crypto listed $72,000 as a downside target to watch.
“If we hit a high at 93.8,000 with a clear and impulsive move above 100,000+, anything below 72,000 is likely to disappear until the next bear market,” he wrote alongside the chart.
“If we fail to sweep the high and produce a final 5th sub-wave, that means this move has actually corrected and the odds of us retesting 70-72k go up exponentially.”
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.