By Omkar Godbole (All times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
Imagine you have a rare collectible. Aged like a fine wine, but only with the original price tag. This is how American companies are told to value Bitcoin… stuck in the past instead of reflecting Bitcoin’s true value. This will change from today.
Yes, today is when the FASB fair value accounting rules passed in 2023 go into effect. This allows businesses to report their Bitcoin holdings at fair market value rather than purchase price. This change will give businesses more control over how they classify these assets and could accelerate enterprise adoption. However, the new standard does not apply to NFTs, wrapped tokens, or internally generated digital assets.
Citing a JPMorgan report, Alex Kuptsikevich, an analyst at The FXPro, said listed companies have already begun implementing strategies similar to MicroStrategy to add BTC to their balance sheets.
The rule change may also explain why BTC has surged above $106,000 in Asia, with President-elect Donald Trump securing strategic BTC reserves and promising a short squeeze on Deribit.
The price has now retreated to around $104,500, possibly due to concerns that the Federal Reserve’s large rate cut this Wednesday will lead to smaller cuts next year. BTC is trading at a discount on Coinbase compared to Binance. This is a sign of weak U.S. demand, the CryptoQuant tracker shows.
More broadly, ETH failed to gain ground above $4,000 amid reports of large withdrawals of staked ether from Lido Finance. Payments-focused XRP traded more than 2% lower, undermining a bullish technical pattern. Ripple CTO David Schwartz raised concerns about volatility due to FOMO ahead of the launch of the company’s RLUSD stablecoin, which it plans to use for cross-border payments alongside XRP. Schwartz said initial price fluctuations and high pre-launch bids do not properly reflect actual market value.
On a more positive note, Solana’s industry-leading revenue generation is gaining attention. Ryan Watkins, co-founder of Syncracy Capital, said, “Solana generated a whopping $431 million in fees in the last 30 days – more than all other Layer 1s combined!” Solana now accounts for 53% of the global layer 1 fee pool, driven by a surge in AI activity. Nonetheless, the token is at risk of falling 3%, falling below its 50-day SMA, a key indicator of near-term market trends.
Chainlink’s LINK overcame weakness in its leading token to rise 4% thanks to whale purchases. According to data from LookOnChain, whales withdrew 429,999 LINK worth more than $12 million over the weekend.
Finally, in traditional markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note looks set to break from a long-term downward trend as observers expect a hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut this week. This tightening of returns can inject volatility into risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. So always pay attention!
Videos worth watching
- Cryptocurrency:
- December 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 2024 earnings. Expected EPS $-0.18 $-1.02 compared to previous year.
- macro
- December 16, 9:45 AM: S&P Global Flash US PMI data for December is released. Comprehensive PMI previous 54.9.
- December 17, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November.
- Inflation Rate (YoY) Prev. 2%.
- Core inflation rate Prev. 1.7%.
- December 18, 2:00 PM: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces the federal funds target rate (currently 4.50%-4.75%). Rate traders give a 97.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. Livestream link.
- December 18, 10 PM: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision. Short-term interest rate estimate: 0.25% 0.25% compared to previous estimate.
- December 19, 7am: The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces its interest rate decision. Estimating bank interest rates. 4.75% 4.75% compared to before.
- December 19, 8:30 a.m.: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases third quarter GDP (final).
- GDP growth QoQ estimates. 2.8% 3.0% compared to before.
- GDP price index (QoQ) estimates. 1.9% 2.5% compared to before.
- December 20, 8:30 a.m.: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases its Personal Income and Expenditures report for November.
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index YoY Prev. 2.3%.
- Core PCE price index (YoY) 2.8%.
- At 1pm on December 24, the Federal Reserve will release its H.6 (Money Inventory Measures) report for November. Money Supply M2 Prev. $23.31T.
token event
- Governance voting and currency
- Avalanche’s (AVAX) Etna upgrade is scheduled to begin on December 16 at 12:00 PM. The goal of the upgrade is to make it cheaper to transact and run validators on the network.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to allocate 22 million ARB ($22.8 million) to cover OpCo’s operating costs, which OpCo can use to create a more structured approach to governance. Voting closes on December 19th.
- Livepeer (LPT) will be holding a public ecosystem meeting on December 17th. Discussions will center around updates, products, and finances.
- Synapse (SYN) DAO is voting to allocate 50,000 OP tokens ($127,500) to build liquidity and provide incentives for Velodrome. We are targeting a TVL of $3-5 million over three months. Voting ends on December 16th.
- unlocked
- Cardano (ADA) is set to unlock $19.75 million worth of tokens, equivalent to 0.05% of its circulating supply, on December 16th.
- Arbitrum (ARB) is set to unlock $94.05 million worth of tokens, equivalent to 2.34% of its circulating supply, on December 16th.
- DYdX (DYDX) is set to unlock $11.7 million worth of tokens, equivalent to 0.57% of its circulating supply, on December 17th.
- Token launch
- Binance announced that its data sovereignty platform Vana (VANA) will launch a token on Launchpool. The deal starts on December 16th.
Conference:
Derivatives Positioning
- Futures basis for BTC and ETH has risen to levels seen during the initial $100,000 breakout, making cash and carry trades increasingly attractive. As a result, we expect to see continued strong inflows into spot ETFs.
- AAVE’s perpetual open interest increased by 7% in 24 hours, the largest increase among major coins. However, cumulative volume delta (CVD) is decreasing, indicating net selling pressure in the market.
- Looking at BTC option expirations extended through January 31st, we see calls trading at less than a 2.5 volatility premium over puts. This is a decrease from last week’s 4-5 premium. Traders don’t seem as enthusiastic about hitting new highs on the recent surge. ETH options are similar.
- Notable traders include a BTC bullish call spread with $115,000 and $125,000 strikes expiring January 31st and a large short position in the ETH $4,100 call expiring December 20th.
Market movements:
- BTC was up 3.4% at $104,645.81 as of 4 PM ET on Friday (24 hours: +2.33%).
- ETH is up 1.38% at $3,951.85 (24 hours: +2.36%).
- CoinDesk 20 was down 0.94% at 3,954.73 (24 hours: +0.27%).
- Ethereum staking return remains unchanged at 3.04%.
- Binance’s BTC funding rate is 0.01% (10.95% per annum).
- DXY was unchanged at 107.00.
- Gold is trading at $2,678.00/oz, up 0.83.
- Silver rose 1.44% to trade at $31.16/ounce.
- Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 39,457.49.
- Hang Seng closed -0.88% at 19,795.49.
- The FTSE is trading down 0.41% at 4,947.81.
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.4% to 4,897.96.
- The DJIA closed -0.17% at 43,828.06 on Friday.
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,051.09.
- Nasdaq closed +0.12% at 19,926.72.
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.54% at 25,274.30.
- The S&P 40 Latin America index closed at 2,320.17, down -1.26%.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds were unchanged at 4.38%.
- E-mini S&P 500 futures rose 0.19% to 6,067.00.
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.29% to 21,859.75.
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were unchanged at 43,901.00.
Bitcoin Statistics:
- BTC dominance: 57.50% (24 hours: +0.57%)
- Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.0377 (24 hours: -0.37%)
- Hash rate (7-day moving average): 796eh/s
- Hash price (spot): $63.2
- Total fees: 9.6 BTC/$980,000
- CME Futures Open Interest: 200,830
- BTC in gold: 39.4oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 11.24%
- Bitcoin in OTC desk balance: 406,400 BTC
basket performance
technical analysis
- Benchmark bond yields are expected to break a trendline indicating a downward trend from their October 2023 highs.
- Golden crosses on the 50-day and 200-day SMAs suggest that may be possible, suggesting difficult times ahead for risk assets.
cryptocurrency stocks
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): Closed Friday at $408.67 (+4.2%), up 5.51% from pre-sale price at $431.20.
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $310.58 (-0.76%) and was up 2.2% in pre-market at $317.46.
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed at C$28.96 (+5.5%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $22.73 (+0.66%) and was up 3.61% at $23.55 pre-market.
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $12.99 (+5.35%) and was up 2.77% in premarket at $13.35.
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $15.55 (+0.06%) and was up 2.06% in premarket at $15.87.
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $12.02 (-2.51%), up 2.33% at $12.30 pre-market.
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $27.36 (-1.79%) and up 3.33% at $28.27 pre-market.
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $67.17 (-6.5%), up 4.26% at $70.03 pre-market.
ETF flow
Spot BTC ETF:
- Daily net inflows: $428.9 million
- Cumulative net inflows: $35.57 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.131 million.
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily net inflow: $23.6 million
- Cumulative net inflows: $2.26 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~3,514,000.
Source: Farside Investors
overnight flow
chart of the day
- Markets are on fire for decentralized lending giant AAVE, with net inflows soaring to $500 million last week.
- This indicates increased risk taking in the cryptocurrency market.
while you sleep
- Bitcoin Hits Highs Above $106,000, Then Retreats on Hawkish Federal Reserve Rate Cut (CoinDesk): Bitcoin falls below 106,000 as traders expect a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday despite concerns about a slowdown in the pace of easing in 2025. The dollar has soared.
- Bitcoin Traders Now Target $120,000 as ‘Santa Claus Rally’ Gains Strength (CoinDesk): Traders say Bitcoin is gaining strength on speculation over federal Bitcoin reserves, growing institutional interest and seasonal patterns We are looking at extending the upward trajectory towards the $120,000 level.
- MicroStrategy Enters the Nasdaq 100, Exposing Bitcoin-Related Stocks to Billions of Dollars in Passive Investment Flows (CoinDesk): MicroStrategy (MSTR) joined the Nasdaq 100 Index on December 23, opening the door to all ETFs that track the index. It becomes a must-have item for . Invesco’s $300 billion QQQ Trust.
- China’s Key Bond Yields Hit Record Lows on Data Disappointment (Bloomberg): China’s 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.71% on Monday as weak economic data stoked hopes for further stimulus. Analysts predicted a possible interest rate cut by the People’s Bank of China. shrinkage.
- The Fed’s game plan for rate cuts continues to change (The Wall Street Journal): Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who must balance inflation concerns, labor market signals and market expectations, faces internal divisions ahead of a potential third rate cut. are facing it. main.
- A weaker yuan would be a gift to Japanese banks (Reuters): Chinese leaders are considering a weaker yuan to offset potential U.S. tariffs. That could put pressure on Asian currencies but also help the Bank of Japan by supporting a fall in the yen ahead of Wednesday’s policy meeting.
in the ether
