Caroline Bishop
October 2, 2024 15:57
Bitcoin (BTC) has hit a new technical high at $66,000, according to Glassnode Insights, with on-chain indicators hinting at a market shift.
Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a new technical high, bouncing back into the $66,000 region for the first time since its all-time high (ATH), according to Glassnode Insights. This upward trend has seen a number of important on-chain indicators hit higher highs, making it a notable moment for the cryptocurrency market.
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Bitcoin price rebounded towards $66,000 last week, hitting its first technical high since June, suggesting a potential phase change in the structured downtrend. Despite a slight decline to $60,000 earlier this week, Bitcoin is trading at $61.7,000 at the time of this writing. Bitcoin’s cyclical price performance following the bear market shows striking similarity to previous cycles, with the index trading in nearly identical positions.
Deceptive long-term holder losses
On-chain analysis shows an increase in the number of long-term holder (LTH) coins suffering losses. This is primarily due to the large volume of BTC acquired near $73,000 ATH, expiring over a 155-day horizon. Although the amount of unrealized losses held by these investors is still small, the loss ratio relative to the total supply held by long-term holders has surged, accounting for 47.4% of all coin losses. This means a re-accumulation phase similar to the periods of 2013, 2019, and 2021.
Improved short-term holder profitability
The Short Term Holders (STH) group also saw improved profitability. The STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator, which measures the average unrealized profit/loss held by short-term holders, has rebounded into positive territory. More than 62% of STH supply is now in a profitable position, suggesting that financial pressures on this group have eased.
institutional demand
Institutional demand for regulated Bitcoin exposure continues to grow. Total assets managed within U.S. spot ETFs currently have a market cap of $58 billion and account for approximately 4.6% of the circulating Bitcoin supply. In particular, the average acquisition cost basis of these ETFs ranges from $54.9k to $59.1k, providing investors with a gauge of psychological stress points based on unrealized profits/losses.
In summary, the recent market rally and improving on-chain metrics indicate a potential change in the Bitcoin market structure. Both long-term and short-term holders appear to be more profitable and less financially stressed than they were a few weeks ago. Solid demand from institutional investors further highlights the positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin.
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