On April 6, Bitcoin Price formed a death cross on a daily chart, which is a technology pattern with a 50 -day moving average (MA) lower than 200 days MA. Historically, this ominous signal, which is related to trend reversal and long weak transaction periods, was sometimes prioritized over major market reductions.
The cross of the latest death occurs while the macroeconomic uncertainty is growing. Stocks appear to be the early stages of tariff war, and volatility is increasing, and fear continues to dominate the emotions of investors. For some investors, Bitcoin’s death cross can be the last blow to the hope of short -term rally. The initial surrender of short -term holders can already come to mind.
Nevertheless, not everyone sees the door ahead.
Bitcoin Death goes beyond history
According to definition, the cross of death confirms the end of the strong stage. If the 50 -day MA falls below 200 days MA, it suggests that the recent price behavior is weaker compared to the long -term trend. The opponent, the Golden Cross, occurs when the opposite occurs. Often foretelling new meetings.
Bitcoin has experienced a cross of 10 deaths from the beginning, and 11th place is currently deployed. Analyzing their dates and periods, all bear markets included the cross of death, but not all death crosses led to the bear market. This difference is the key to understanding the current settings.
BTC/USD 1 -day death cross history (log). Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView
In fact, there are two types of death of death: the bear market and the rest have a cross. Three death crosses formed in the bear market in 2014-2015, 2018 and 2022 were long and painful. They lasted for nine to 13 months and saw the flaws between 55% and 68% from the cross to the bottom of the cycle.
The remaining seven were much less worse. They lasted from 1.5 to 3.5 months, and Bitcoin saw nothing at 27%. In most cases, the signal was marked on topical floor, followed by a new rally.
This causes an important question for us. Is Bitcoin already in the bear market or is another bear trap?
Weak signal?
If Bitcoin is actually on the bear’s territory, the current death cross price can take six to 12 months of sub -prices, as the CEO of the encryption agent. This outlook is consistent with his observation of the current market cap and the difference between the realized CAP (based on the average cost for each wallet X of the BTC).
“The upper limit is growing, but when the market cap is stagnant or dropped, capital is flowing, but the price does not rise, but it is a classic weak signal.”
KI YOUNG JU added that the current data clearly points out the latter.
“Sales pressure can be alleviated at any time, but historically, the actual reversal takes at least six months, so the short -term rally will rarely.”
BTC growth rate difference. Source: cryptoquant
Other market participants ignore the existence of the cross of death. Mister Crypto, an encryption analyst, insisted that the cross of the current death is the setting of the rally, not the slide. “The trap is set again. This will be the most hateful meeting in 2025!” He posted with a chart showing his previous false signal.
Bitcoin Death Cross in the bull market. Source: Mr. Encryption
Coinshares Research Director James Butterfill also disregarded the importance of signals. When he puts it in
“Bitcoin Death Cross is empirically, it’s completely ridiculous, and it’s often a good purchase opportunity.”
According to Butterfill’s data, Bitcoin prices are slightly lower per month after the death cross (-3.2%) and often 3 months higher.
relevant: Trump tariffs have an idea that Bitcoin can be wrong in the US dollar.
Interestingly, Bitcoin is not the only worm -blinking warning signal. The NASDAQ 100 and S & P 500 are both on the verge of forming a cross of their death, and individual technical stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Alphabet, are already triggered or close.
Bitcoin’s recent movement is part of a larger market reset. But now I’m leaning more on the “worse” side. As some analysts pointed out, the bad thing in Nasdaq tends to be bad for Bitcoin. Of course, Bitcoin is not completely insisting on the role of digital gold.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading measures include risks, and the reader must do his own research when making a decision.