Bitcoin (BTC) was shaken around the opening bell on Wall Street on October 10 as mixed inflation data from the US sparked volatility in risk assets.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
US Inflation Data Fallout: Positive for Bitcoin
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured volatile BTC price conditions focused around $61,000.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September exceeded expectations, pointing out that inflation factors are stronger than expected.
An official press release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed, “Over the past 12 months, the seasonally adjusted All Items Index increased 2.4%.”
US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS
At the same time, unemployment claims are at their highest since June 2023. This is a contradictory result that, when combined with CPI, creates a trading resource that Kobeissi calls a “nightmare” for the Federal Reserve.
“The Fed’s decision to cut by 50 basis points makes absolutely no sense. They even said the economy was at ‘maximum employment’ after announcing the 50 bps cut,” they claimed in part of their reply to X.
“Were there external factors that were putting pressure on the Fed?”
Source: Skew
The situation is not lost on Bitcoin traders, who agree that Fed officials are more likely to focus on jobs than a slight CPI overshoot.
Michaël van de Poppe, a cryptocurrency trader, analyst and entrepreneur, told his
Markets overall see a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will enact a 0.25% rate cut at its November meeting, with that probability sitting at 87%, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Fed target interest rate probability. Source: CME Group
BTC price builds up “selling pressure”
Considering other sensitive topics around cryptocurrencies and risk assets, trading firm QCP Capital has named both internal and external sources of volatility.
relevant: Bitcoin ‘surrender is coming’ as liquidity becomes dangerous with BTC price below $50,000
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting were “less dovish” than expected and also brought into focus concerns about BTC selling pressure due to the Silk Road Bitcoin movement.
“U.S. stock indices rebounded last night as the S&P 500 hit new highs, but the same level of optimism was not seen in cryptocurrencies as the selling pressure on Silk Road and news of increased PlusToken ETH selling increased.” From the latest bulletins of Telegram channel subscribers.
“We remain hopeful for an Uptober rally as long as the key support level at 60,000 remains intact.”
QCP thus joined the trend of BTC prices doubling before the monthly close, with gains averaging 23% in October.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.