Bitcoin (BTC) hit an intraday high on August 23 as markets braced for the week’s major macroeconomic events.
Bitcoin Seeks Liquidity Signals in Jackson Hole Speech
According to data provided by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, $61,000 was recovered in the hours before the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole.
The centerpiece of this will be a speech by Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled for 10 a.m. ET, which is being closely watched by traders for signs of easing in monetary policy.
As Cointelegraph reported, the market is pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut, a major bullish event for cryptocurrencies and risk assets starting in September.
“The question is no longer whether the Fed will cut rates,” the trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a recent X commentary.
“The question is whether we will cut rates by 25 to 50 basis points in September.”
Latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool confirms that a modest 0.25% cut is likely.
But some say it’s unlikely Powell himself will make any surprising comments as anticipation builds for Jackson Hole.
“I think the Fed’s baseline scenario is that they’ll move a quarter, and my baseline scenario is that they’ll move a quarter, but I don’t think they’ll feel the need to provide guidance that far out,” former Fed official Lou Crandall told CNBC on Aug. 22.
While this is ostensibly a measure to promote risk asset liquidity, historical data shows that rate cuts do not necessarily guarantee a BTC price reaction.
Stacks podcast host and trader Luke Martin analyzed Bitcoin’s performance during the last Fed rate cut in 2019, noting that the subsequent COVID-19-induced market crash was necessary for the bull market to begin.
“The last time the Fed cut rates was in 2019, which actually coincided with a slight price decline. Then came the COVID crash, zero rate cuts, and the money printing press, which fueled a recession,” he summarized.
Waiting for BTC price breakout
BTC/USD continued to range-bound within a narrowing zone, with $62,000 as the key resistance level.
Related: Bitcoin Macro Peak Expected in 2025 Despite ‘Chaotic’ March Highs
According to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, an additional selling liquidity block appeared at $61,435 on the day, keeping the price flat.
“This is not what a hyper-leveraged, long-term biased, corrupt Bitcoin market looks like,” Checkmate, the pseudonymous creator of the on-chain analytics resource Checkonchain, commented to X this week.
On the 4-hour timeframe, traders noted that BTC/USD is still trying to overcome resistance in the form of the 200-period simple moving average.
“If this level is surpassed, Bitcoin will soar to $64,000-$65,000. If it is rejected, some consolidation is expected,” popular trader Elsa predicted in part of an X post on the topic.
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