Bitcoin (BTC) price is falling below its 2021 all-time high of $69,000, and independent trader Bob Loukas believes the price is entering an “explosive” period of its four-year cycle.
“Bitcoin will close the second year of its four-year cycle next month and enter the third year of its historically explosive cycle,” Loukas noted in an October 8 post on X.
Loukas uses a four-year cycle to identify the highest and lowest points in the Bitcoin market. Historical parallels can help investors identify when the market will peak in the current cycle.
Loukas believes Bitcoin is currently accumulating in a descending expansionary wedge after falling from the all-time high of $73,835 reached on March 14. He predicts that Bitcoin could soon enter a parabolic upward trend, driven by investor investment shifts and interest rate cuts.
“The eight-month base has been built, sentiment has reset and interest rates are easing. I mean, the script is perfect.”
BTC/USD monthly chart. source: bob lucas
Loukas’ analysis takes into account general market uncertainty and fears arising from ongoing geopolitical tensions, the upcoming US presidential election, and doubts about the health of the US economy.
Considering the above, bulls may need to create a monthly candle just above the upper trend line of the expanding wedge pattern in October to maintain an 8-month base to confirm entry into the third year of the cycle.
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In light of this optimistic outlook, analysts at blockchain analytics firm Santiment observed increased investor interest in Bitcoin in the fourth quarter. They said:
“Analysts and community members remain optimistic about “Uptober” and the potential for a bull market in 2024. Institutional interest in Bitcoin is also growing, especially with expectations of additional spot ETFs.”
Recent sentiment on Bitcoin. Source: Santiment
If speculative buying continues, the resulting FOMO could lead to a significant rally, as Loukas predicted.
Moreover, with increasing institutional demand and the return of net inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin is likely to follow its positive Q4 narrative and continue its four-year cycle.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.