With 2024 already underway, anticipation in the cryptocurrency world is at an all-time high as everyone prepares for Bitcoin’s halving. This is an event that could reshape the Bitcoin market landscape. Historically, this event is worth looking at because it sparked a wave of change throughout the cryptocurrency industry. Knowing what we have learned from previous halvings, we will move ahead with a keen eye and shape our movements based on these insights. But is this halving something different? Let’s find out.
From digital gold to rare platinum: Bitcoin’s story of scarcity and increasing value
Bitcoin’s design is to reduce the availability of BTC over time and suppress inflation. The limit of Bitcoins in existence is set at 21 million, and we have already reached 19.62 million. Bitcoin’s scarcity, with its market release strictly limited, is the main reason why people call it “digital gold.” Because both assets have a “hard to find” quality.
If you think of the Bitcoin blockchain as a ticking clock, you see that every 210,000 blocks, or about every four years, a halving occurs and the reward for mining a new block is cut in half. Since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009, it started at 50 BTC per block and went down to 3.125 BTC in 2024.
The stock-to-flow ratio, which compares existing supply to new inflows of coins, shows that Bitcoin will become rarer than a platinum album. By 2032, after the 2024 and 2030 halvings, Bitcoin’s scarcity will soar, making it even more valuable than gold.
Bitcoin’s growth pattern after halving
Let’s take a walk down Bitcoin’s memory path. After each halving, the price of Bitcoin skyrockets. In just 100 days after the 2012 halving, market capitalization exploded by 342%. What’s even more impressive is that the highest price rose 8,761% the following year to an astonishing $1,152. Back in 2016, the reward was halved from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC and the price soared to $17,760, a 2,572% increase the following year. The most recent halving in 2020 saw the reward drop to 6.25 BTC, and the Bitcoin price did not disappoint, hitting $67,549 the following year, a solid 594% growth.
Playing armchair mathematician for a moment, we can look at how Bitcoin’s growth rate has decreased since past halvings (70.64% from 1 to 2 halvings, 76.91% from 2 to 3) and average these decreases to arrive at a growth rate: there is. decreased by 73.78%. Then apply that to a growth rate of 594.03% after the third halving, and voila, you get a speculative growth rate of 155.79% after the 2024 halving. This means that Bitcoin could reach around $111,807 within a year to a year and a half after the upcoming halving. But let’s be clear, all of this is just speculation and should not be the basis for any investment decision.
Miner’s Survival of the Fittest
For Bitcoin miners, the 2024 halving will be an uphill battle. With compensation cut in half, miners working with older equipment and facing high electricity bills will be caught between a rock and a hard place. For example, in Italy, mining one Bitcoin can produce as much as a luxury Lamborghini Huracan or a Porsche 911 Turbo S, with costs rising up to $208,560.
The 2024 halving will transform the mining landscape into a scene reminiscent of ‘The Hunger Games’. Here, only the strongest miners, armed with the most efficient technology and cheap energy, will survive. This halving will be the ultimate test of strategy and resilience, and only those with cost-effective tactics will emerge victorious from the competitive battlefield.
Closing Thoughts
Therefore, the Bitcoin halving in 2024 is poised to seriously shake things up, with major changes in mining operations and potentially large fluctuations in the Bitcoin price. The upcoming halving event blends powerful economic theory with cutting-edge technological advancements, all wrapped up in the unmistakable charm of cryptocurrency. Whether you’re mining, hiding, or just watching from the sidelines, pack some popcorn. This will be written in the book!
This is a guest post by Maria Carola. The opinions expressed are solely personal and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.