As the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving event approaches on April 19, an interesting trend is emerging among miners. Unlike the pre-halving sell-offs seen before the halvings of 2016 and 2020, miners have been accumulating, going against the previous trend.
Miners are accumulating Bitcoin
One analyst cited CryptoQuant in a post on dataSince the beginning of 2024, the total BTC balance held by miners has increased by a whopping 12,100 BTC, reaching a total of 217,000 BTC.
This behavior stands in stark contrast to what happened in 2016 and 2020 before the network cut miner rewards. Then, reading the data, we see that most miners were reducing their holdings in anticipation of their profits plummeting after the halving.
Halving is set at the protocol level and will halve miner block rewards from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. In this way, miners will have to consume more resources to generate the same profits as in previous eras.
Therefore, some small-scale miners tend to liquidate and exit in anticipation of increased competition. However, some large miners with more resources will seize the opportunity to sell their coins and purchase more efficient mining machines to remain competitive.
According to the chart, miners have continued to offload since the BTC halving in 2016. However, despite increasing selling pressure, prices rose sharply in 2017, peaking at $20,000 before cooling off in 2018.
With the adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies following the ICO craze in 2017, the scene became more liquid and more miners participated, as seen in the rise in hash rate after the halving.
Unlike the 2016 event, the 2020 halving marked a turning point. As the price of Bitcoin soars toward all-time highs, miners have adopted holding strategies that rapidly accumulate coins, as seen in the chart. This current accumulation trend suggests miners can expect a similar price surge.
Is BTC ready to rise to $100,000?
This change in miner behavior could have a positive impact on prices. Miners, who are expected to rebalance and become more efficient after April 19, are giving a vote of confidence despite the current slump.
Overall, the combination of lower daily BTC emissions following the halving, miner accumulation, and institutional inflows via spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could push the price even higher.
The pace at which prices will rise is yet to be confirmed. Bitcoin is weak and still under tremendous selling pressure after its April 13 losses. A bullish break above the current range of $74,000 could set the stage for further gains towards $100,000.