Bitcoin (BTC) has had a great start to 2024, rising more than 40% since the beginning of the year. This has been driven by several positive fundamental factors, including the launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States and the halving event that reduced the amount of BTC paid out to miners by 50%.
Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin prices hit new all-time highs ahead of the halving, leading many analysts to predict a super cycle within the current halving year.
More than 123 days have passed since the Bitcoin halving, but the BTC price has yet to surpass its pre-halving high. Bitcoin is down 13% in the past month and 14% in the past 30 days. This has led market analysts to debate whether Bitcoin will start a rally in Q4 2024.
Veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt says the current market cycle could soon become the longest in history following a halving, which could indicate that new highs will take longer to reach, adding that it is “not in the cards.”
source: Peter Brandt
According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin has always delivered positive returns in the fourth quarter of a halving period, with returns of 58% and 168% in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Furthermore, BTC prices delivered positive returns in 8 out of 11 years between 2013 and 2023, with an average return of 88%.
Bitcoin Quarterly Returns (%). Source: CoinGlass
Looking at history, there is a 73% chance that Bitcoin will rally in Q4 2024.
Ki-Young Joo, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, analyzed Bitcoin price movements during the 2020 halving and said the rally began in Q4.
“In the last Bitcoin halving cycle, the bullish rally started in Q4. Whales won’t be bored with flat YoY performance in Q4.”
Bitcoin: Cumulative Return Index for the Halving Year (Year-to-Date = 1). Source: CryptoQuant
According to the report, Bitcoin’s price is in an accumulation phase, which suggests that it could enter a parabolic uptrend by Q4 2024.
The 200-day EMA is providing strong resistance to Bitcoin price.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin’s price action has formed a series of higher lows on the daily chart, but has remained below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the past seven days.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
IntoTheBlock’s IOMAP (In/Out of the Money Around Price) model shows that Bitcoin is facing relatively strong resistance on its recovery path compared to the support it is enjoying in the downtrend.
The 200-day EMA at $59,423 is similar to the $59,500-$61,300 range, where about 1.51 million addresses bought about 817,770 BTC.
Bitcoin IOMAP chart. Source: IntoTheBlock
This suggests that high demand-side liquidity is needed to push BTC price above the 200-day EMA and later above the resistance levels provided by the 50-day and 100-day EMA at $61,383 and $62,323 respectively to break out of the current consolidation.
Analyst Mark Cullen said that if this does not happen, the Bitcoin price could fall to $57,500, and even to $54,500.
source: Mark Cullen
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.