Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline by more than 3% this week as bears maintained selling pressure. Although the price fell below the Short-Term Hold Realized Price (STH-RP) of $64,230, the bears were unable to deepen the correction. This suggests that bulls are trying to defend STH-RP, the total cost basis for Bitcoin holders, i.e. wallets that store Bitcoin for 155 days or less.
Bitcoin weakness has led to continued outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since June 13, according to data from Farside Investors. This suggests that Bitcoin investors are nervous about the near-term outlook.
Independent analyst Willy Woo said in a post on In 2020, hashrate recovered in 8 days. In 2017, recovery took 24 days. Woo added that the miner surrender comes a long time after this year’s halving, perhaps because of the “general imperative to increase returns.”
If Bitcoin starts trading above $64,602, it will likely encourage buying of some altcoins. Let’s take a look at the top five cryptocurrencies that are showing strength on the charts.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin fell below the $64,602 support level on June 21, but bears were unable to gain the upper hand. This means the sale will close at a lower level.
The bulls need to push the price above the moving average to trap the aggressive bears. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair will likely gain momentum and rise towards $70,000 and $72,000. The bears are expected to show strong defense in the $72,000-$73,777 area.
Conversely, if the price declines from current levels or moving averages, it would be a sign that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on a bounce. That would increase the chances of a deeper correction towards $60,000.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are trying to recover, which is ahead of a sell-off at the 20-EMA. If the price continues lower, the bears will fall back below $63,379 and resume the downtrend. If that happens, the pair could plummet to $60,000.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing positive divergence, suggesting that selling pressure may ease. The bulls gain strength at the break and close above the 50 simple moving average. The pair could rise to $67,000 and then $70,000.
Toncoin price analysis
The bulls did not allow Toncoin (TON) to fall below its 50-day SMA ($6.83), indicating solid buying at the lower levels.
The bulls are trying to push the price above the indirect resistance of $7.67. If successful, the TON/USDT pair could rise to $8.29. This level could act as strong resistance, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could start a march towards $10.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price declines from current levels and falls below $6.60, the head and shoulders pattern will be completed. This could begin a downward move towards the pattern target of $4.91.
Bears repeatedly pulled the price below the uptrend line but were unable to initiate a downtrend. This means that bulls have been buying aggressively at lower levels. Strong selling by the bears is expected in the $7.67-$8.29 range, but if the bulls prevail, the bears could advance towards $10.
The first support level to watch for a downtrend is the 20-EMA. A breakdown of this level would signal that the pair could fluctuate between $6.60 and $7.67 for some time. Bears gain the upper hand at the break and close below $6.77.
Pepe price analysis
Pepe (PEPE) has been correcting over the past few days, but the bounce from $0.000010 shows that the bulls are trying to bounce back.
Buyers need to push the price above the downtrend line and moving average to signal the start of a sustained recovery. The PEPE/USDT pair may rise to $0.000014 and then to $0.000016.
Conversely, if the price falls below the downtrend line or moving average, it indicates that the downtrend is continuing to rise. A drop below $0.000010 could open the door for a decline to $0.000008.
The 20-EMA is flat on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a balance in supply and demand. If buyers push the price above the downtrend line, the pair could reach $0.000014. This level could act as a minor hurdle, but if cleared, the pair could extend its relief rally all the way to $0.000016.
If the uptrend line breaks, the advantage will be in favor of the downtrend. This could push the price towards a strong support area between $0.000009 and $0.000010.
Related: Bitcoin Ready to Break Through ‘$90K+’ BTC Price Target — New Analysis
Caspar Price Analysis
Kaspa (KAS) bounced off its 50-day SMA ($0.14) on June 18, sending a buy signal at that low level. The bulls continued buying and the price rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.15) on June 23.
If buyers maintain momentum and the price rises above the downtrend line, it means the correction is over. The KAS/USDT pair may attempt a bounce against strong overhead resistance at $0.19.
An important support level to look at for downside is the 50-day SMA. A break and close below this level would indicate the start of a sharper correction towards $0.10. Bulls will attempt to stop the decline at $0.10.
The moving averages on the 4-hour chart are on the verge of a crossover and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that the bulls are attempting a bounce. A close above $0.16 would clear the path for a rise to $0.18.
On the other hand, if the price slides below the moving average, bears will try to fall below $0.14 again. If this level holds, the pair is likely to consolidate between $0.14 and $0.16 for some time. If the $0.14 level is broken, the pair may fall towards $0.13.
JasmyCoin Price Analysis
JasmyCoin (JASMY) rebounded from its 50-day SMA ($0.03) on June 21st, indicating that lower levels are attracting buyers.
The 20-day EMA ($0.03) is flattening and the RSI is near its midpoint, indicating selling pressure is waning. The JASMY/USDT pair could rise to $0.04 if buyers overcome resistance at the 20-day EMA.
Alternatively, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it would be a sign that the bears have not given up and are continuing to move higher. The currency pair can then spend time moving back and forth between the moving averages. A break and close below the 50-day SMA could initiate a deeper decline towards $0.02.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the bulls are attempting to initiate an easing rally, which is facing resistance in the area between the 50-SMA and the downtrend line. An important support level to watch during a downtrend is the 20-EMA. If the price bounces from the 20-EMA, the chances of breaking above the downtrend line increase. If that happens, the pair could rise to $0.04.
Contrary to this assumption, a decline below the 20-EMA suggests that the bears are maintaining pressure. A breakout below the channel may intensify the selling. The pair could then plummet to $0.02.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making any decisions.