Main takeout:
The Bitcoin risk -off signal has fallen to 23.7, the lowest since March 2019, and is likely to have a low risk and a strong trend.
Despite the recent decrease in network activities, a strong macro indicator, such as the Macro Chain Index (MCI), suggests that Bitcoin can soon repay more than $ 100,000.
For the first time since March 27, 2019, when Bitcoin (BTC) traded $ 4,000 on May 5, Bitcoin Risk-Off Signal, the indicator of onChain and Exchange data, fell to the lowest level (23.7) for the first time. The signal is currently in a blue area, which historically suggests a high risk of correction and a high probability of a strong trend. If the oscillator rises to more than 60 or turns red, there is a high risk of weakness.
In 2019, the same signal was prioritized by 1,550% rally, which was rapidly worth $ 68,000 in 2021.
According to the data of Cryptoquant, the risk signals have been found to combine six measurement items: shortcomings and upward volatility, exchange inflow, financing speed, gift interest and market cap. In general, they provide a balanced view of correction risks, making signals a data -oriented gauge for market trends.
Bitcoin’s value was $ 4,000 when the dangerous -off signal showed a low risk investment environment. Some elements can explain the price imbalance.
In 2024, the start of the SPOT BITCOIN Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) in the United States increased demand and stabilized prices to open water for institutional capital. In fact, ETFs and public companies now have 9%of Bitcoin supply.
🚨 Latest: ETF and public companies now have 9%of Bitcoin supply! SPOT ETF owns 5.5%a year after its launch and has 3.5%of public companies such as strategies. Institutional adoption is reconstructed $ BTCMarket -Supply, Mobile Epidemiology. 👀
(H/T: @ecoinometrics )) pic.twitter.com/ic892rvep2
-COINTELELEGRAPH Markets & Research (@cointelegraphmt) May 3, 2025
According to data from Fidelity Digital Assets, Bitcoin’s volatility has been reduced by three to four times the stock index in the initial triple spot volatility, as shown in the chart below. The volatility, which was realized annually between 2019 and 2025, has decreased by more than 80%.
This maturity market absorbs capital inflow by price stop. As a result, the price has increased compared to 2019 as the adoption of alcohol, regulatory clarity, and the hedge role in the inflation of Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin prices form a coinbase premium flip negative two BTC futures gaps.
Bitcoin macro indicator flash optimistic signal
Cointelegraph recently reported that Macro Chain Index (MCI), a synthesis of onchain and macroeconomic metrics, flashed the purchase signal when the market floor was first predicted for the first time since 2022.
Historically, MCI’s RSI crossovers are more than a massive rally, such as a surge of more than 500% in 2019. MCI suggests that Bitcoin can break $ 100,000 in the next few weeks.
Anonymous password analysts, DarkFost, pointed out that Bitcoin’s network activity index has declined rapidly due to a decrease in trading volume and daily activity addresses since December 2024. The drop in UTXOS indicates that the demand for block space has decreased.
However, the analyst explained that he does not confirm the outlook. The macro indicators still maintain strong, suggesting that this evacuation can be a strategic entry point for long -term investors.
Related: How many Bitcoin can Berkshire Hathaway buys Bitcoin?
This article does not include investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading measures include risks, and the reader must do his own research when making a decision.