Bitcoin rose back above $43,000 this week after sluggish trading activity. The new momentum has reignited hopes for a sustained uptrend. However, uncertainty still remains due to upcoming central bank policy moves and blockchain events that could swing prices one way or the other.
key point
- Bitcoin has rebounded above $43,000 following the recent downturn, but still faces uncertainty amid the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting that could impact its price.
- Short-term ETF traders benefited from gains, while long-term holders stayed invested despite the volatility.
- Analysts predict that Bitcoin could rise further if the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates in January, but the actual decision will impact the market.
- The upcoming Bitcoin halving portends a historically large rally, suggesting that the 2024 event could lead to a significant rise in the price.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust redemptions create selling pressure due to delayed payments, so tracking the flow of funds can indicate price fluctuations.
In the short term, Bitcoin faced resistance around $42,700 before moving higher. This choppy consolidation gave short-term traders an opportunity to profit from the volatility. The recent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF has likely helped speculators take profits.
Meanwhile, long-term investors have remained committed, showing characteristic resilience despite Bitcoin’s inherent price fluctuations. This group of stalwarts expects even larger returns to arise from major developments such as the impending halving in 2024.
All eyes are on the Fed’s January meeting.
Most importantly, the cryptocurrency market is now looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s pivotal monetary policy meeting. Market observers widely assume the meeting will lead to a halt in rate hikes. But the actual decision has big implications.
“These potential cuts are seen as a measure to support the economy…but the timing and scale of these rate cuts are very important,” one analyst said.
Hasty easing measures risk reigniting inflation, while delayed action could hamper economic growth. The Federal Reserve therefore faces a severe trade-off with global markets in equilibrium.
Some, such as Betfinix strategist Dr. Florian Grummes, expect the Fed’s cautious approach could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin, potentially fueling its rise to new highs. However, as expectations rise ahead of major announcements in January, cryptocurrency traders have become cautious.
Halving event expected to be large-scale
With the Federal Reserve meeting imminent, seasoned Bitcoin investors have set their sights on the token halving in 2024. As programmed into Bitcoin’s code, the event, held every four years, cuts the block reward by 50%, limiting the issuance of new supply.
Past halvings have consistently resulted in stratospheric gains. Based on historical data, Bitcoin’s value has increased more than 20 times in the year since the previous halving.
we are too early #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/wzNz99YBA6
— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) January 16, 2024
If this trend holds, analysts predict that Bitcoin will reach $170,000 by 2025, given its current price. But some debate is still simmering over whether the expectations themselves have already driven prices higher, or whether the real upside is here to stay.
Among macro factors, increased trading volume for spot Bitcoin ETFs has influenced intraday value fluctuations. Analysts highlight that payment delays are causing outflows as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trustaround market opens.
This temporary selling pressure creates a noticeable “grayscale effect” in the afternoon hours. However, observers emphasize that this rotational dynamic will remain temporary until redemption pressure subsides.